Philadelphia Prison System Reincarceration Recidivism Report by Paul Heroux 2008
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REINCARCERATION IN THE PHILADELPHIA PRISON SYSTEM ALL DISCHARGED INMATES BETWEEN 2000 AND 2006 Report Author: Paul Heroux, MS, MSc 2 This report does not necessarily reflect the views of the Philadelphia Prison System or the City of Philadelphia. All comments herein are that of the author. Questions about the methodology, qualifications and/or limitations of what can or can’t be inferred from this report should directed to: Paul Heroux at PaulHeroux@aol.com All other questions should be directed to the Philadelphia Prison System or the City of Philadelphia. This report was commissioned by then Commissioner Leon A King, Esq in September 2007 and was completed under the supervision and direction of Commissioner Louis Giorla in May 2008. Data used to begin and complete this report were obtained from the PPS MIS Department in 2007 and 2008. 3 About the Report Author: Paul Heroux worked for the Philadelphia Prison System between 2006 and 2008 as the Special Assistant to the Commissioner for then Commissioner Leon King. He conducted analysis and provided research support on various PPS issues. Prior to working for the PPS, Heroux worked as a military analyst in a national security think-tank. Currently, he is the Director of the Research and Planning Division at the Massachusetts Department of Correction. Heroux earned his Master’s in Criminology from the University of Pennsylvania, and he earned a second Master’s degree from the London School of Economics. 4 CONTENTS 1. SUMMARY OF FINDINGS PAGE 6 2. INTRODUCTION PAGE 7 3. MEASURING REINCARCERATION PAGE 10 4. TREATMENT PROGRAM EFFECTIVENSS PAGE 12 5. GENERAL FINDINGS IN REINCARCERATION PAGE 15 6. REINCARCERATION: 2000-2006 PAGE 22 7. OVERCROWDING AND REINCARCERATION PAGE 27 8. REINCARCERATION AND AGE PAGE 30 9. REINCARCERATION AND INMATE LENGTH OF STAY PAGE 37 10. REINCARCERATION AND EDUCATION PAGE 43 11. REINCARCERATION AND VIOLATION OF PAROLE PAGE 47 12. WHO IS NOT REINCARCERATED? PAGE 58 13. NOTE FROM THE AUTHOR PAGE 63 14. WORKS CITED PAGE 64 15. CREDITS PAGE 66 5 SUMMARY OF FINDINGS • Reincarceration rates decreased between 2000 and 2006. The general rate of reincarceration at one year fluctuated between 30 and 45%, with an average around 35% between 2000 and 2006 (Page 23). Recidivism in Philadelphia is not 70% (page 63). • The percentage of inmates discharged who had their first incarceration in the PPS increased between 2001 and 2007. This finding suggests two things: 1) that reincarceration is not the driving force behind the PPS population crisis, and 2) the PPS population was populated by a growing percentage first-time inmates (Page 27). • Increased new admissions and increased length of stay are the driving force behind the PPS population crisis (see pages 29 and 37 for LOS, and 29 for admissions). • As the number of career incarcerations increases in the inmate population, the percentage of inmates with serious mental illness (SMI) also increases with inmates who have higher numbers of career admissions—the City reincarcerates the seriously mentally ill at high rates (Page 21). • The largest percentage of reincarceration occurs in the first year of release and within that first year, most reincarceration occurs within the first six months of release. • At any given time, just over 20% of inmates in the PPS are incarcerated on a most serious charge that is related to violence; while just less than 80% of the inmates in the PPS are incarcerated on a most serious charge not related to violence. • About 48% of inmates are incarcerated for drug related charges (Page 16). • Drug offenses are the most prevalent reason for inmate reincarceration, followed by violence related charges (Page 18-19). Robbery was the leading cause within violence related reasons. • Drug offenders reincarcerated for distribution-related offenses outnumber possession related offenses by a ratio of approximately 4:1 to 8:1, depending on the year. • The average offender age is 31 years and the most frequently occurring age is 20 or 21 years old, depending on the year. Female desistance begins after about 45 years of age. Females, however, do not have a specific most frequently occurring age and are represented evenly from their early 20s until their mid 40s (Pages 30-36). • The length of incarceration seems to have no relationship with deterrence – longer stays do not seem to decrease reincarceration (Pages 37-42). • Most inmates have only 1 to 3 readmissions in the PPS; less than 7% of inmates have 10 or more admissions (Page 20). • Race is not a strong predictor of who will be reincarcerated on VOP (Page 52). • “Other legal violation” offenders (marginal and non-violent) are not reincarcerated at the same rate as more serious offenders (Page 59). Paul Heroux 6 Reincarceration in Philadelphia INTRODUCTION Recidivism rates are among the most frequently cited figures in corrections. However, recidivism is one of the most difficult to measures in all of criminal justice. There are several definitions of recidivism, including if an offender: 1) Reoffended but was not caught 2) Was rearrested 3) Was reincarcerated 4) Was reconvicted but not reincarcerated 5) Was reconvicted and sentenced This report will not make use of the term recidivism but will make use of the term reincarcerated. This report will examine inmates reincarcerated in the PPS for a new crime or a violation of parole. Empirical research and experience indicate that incarcerating individuals temporarily incapacitates offenders, but generally speaking, incarceration does not deter criminal activity. Considering that 46% of inmates are released within 2 weeks of admission (Goldkamp, 2006) and more than 99% of the Philadelphia Prison System’s admitted inmates will eventually be released back to the community after a stay in the PPS, the rate at which inmates return to the PPS is more than just a statistic. Knowing which types of offenders are returning to the PPS, for what offenses, where they are coming from, and the amount of time from their release to reincarceration are all important when allocating reentry resources and planning. Incarceration serves five general functions (Bartol, 2002): 1. punishment – punishing the offender for the crime 2. incapacitation – keeping the offender from offending for a specified period of time 3. specific deterrence – to attempt to reduce the likelihood of criminal reoffending 4. general deterrence – to discourage others from engaging in crime 5. retribution – to serve as a source of justice for the victim of the criminal’s bad acts Paul Heroux “If we know where and how long it is before offenders return to the PPS, the City can appropriately allocate its resources to reducing the risks of reoffending.” Reincarceration in Philadelphia 7 1,600 Violent Crimes per 100,000 Citizens Fig a. 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 1,500 1,400 1,300 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1995 1,200 1990 PPS Average Daily Population PPS Population and Philadelphia Violent Crime Rate Year PPS ADP Violent Crime Rate Per 100,000 As seen in the fig above, the PPS population has increased at a consistent rate from 1990 to 2005, while the violent crime rate increases and decreases regardless of the number of inmates in the PPS. As such, it seems that the violent crime rate is unaffected any threat of, or deterrent effect of incarceration. This pattern makes sense since many violent crimes are impulsive with no premeditation; deterrence is unlikely to work for these cases. In addition, after accounting for impulsivity, research shows that certainty of being caught is more of an effective deterrent than the threat of being caught. Put another way, certainty of punishment places an upper limit of the severity of punishment. The rise in the Prison population is not caused by an increase in the City’s population as there was a decrease in the City population concurrent with an increase in the PPS population (see fig. b below). 2006 2004 2002 2000 1998 1996 1994 Philadelphi a Population 1,600,000 1,550,000 1,500,000 1,450,000 1,400,000 1,350,000 1992 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 1990 PPS ADP Philadelphia Citizen Population and the PPS Average Daily Population Fig b Year Average Daily Population (ADP) Philadelphia Citizen Population The Increase in the PPS population is not due to an increase I the City’s population; the population of the City decreased as the population of the PPS increased between 1990 and 2007. Philadelphia has more inmates per citizen than other major US cities. (see Fig ‘c’ on page 9).This information was originally provided by the author in a report dated 9 November 2007 from the PPS Commissioner Leon King to then Mayor-Elect Michael Nutter. Paul Heroux Of these five general functions, not one actually addresses an effective and empirically proven long-term criminal risk reduction strategy. Incapacitation stops the criminal behavior only while he or she is incarcerated. One estimate finds that a 10% increase in incarceration yields an estimated 1.6-3.1% (cited from Travis, 2005) reduction in crime on the street – not a cost effective means of reducing crime. Philadelphia is consistent with national trends and has not seen a decrease in violent crimes with any increases in incarceration (See fig. a). Incarceration is necessary, but the notion that we can simply lock-up criminals and therefore have less crime is simplistic and does not address the many causes of crime. In addition, incapacitation as a crime strategy has its limits. If the upper limits of incarceration are extended, such as in Truth in Sentencing laws, Three Strikes Laws and 25 Years to Life, incapacitation still has not been proven through empirical research to produce the desired effects in reducing long-term crime; costs for such long sentences reduce limited public finds for other, better crime reduction means (Petersilia, 2003). The threat of short or long punishment, including jail and other sanctions does not deter career criminals - incarceration is actually a right-of-passage for some. Since the likelihood of getting caught for crime is so low (only a fraction of reported crimes actually end in an arrest, much less for a conviction), general deterrence is not an effective strategy. Retribution for a crime sometimes makes the victim feel better but does nothing to reduce the criminogenic risk factors after an offender has served his or her time. The solution, therefore, is not to simply warehouse inmates in jail or prison, but to proactively and comprehensively prepare exoffenders for crime-free reentry using rigorously evaluated evidence-based interventions aimed at changing the criminal mindset and behavior of the offender. Proactive, comprehensive reentry support is not a liberal ideology; reducing the risks of criminal reoffending upon release is a moral obligation of government. 8 Reincarceration in Philadelphia Even if the PPS can reduce the reincarceration rate, the overall crime rate should not necessarily be expected to go down. The PPS is able to reduce reincarceration. Reducing reincarceration may or may not, however, result in a decrease in the overall crime rate. That is not to say that efforts should not be taken to reduce reincarceration, clearly reducing reincarceration improves the quality of life for many. If the crime on the street grows more quickly than a decrease in reincarceration, we will see an increase in crime rates. If decreases in reincarceration outpace increases in crime then we may see a decrease in crime rates. Because of this complexity, as a general rule, criminologists do not equate a decrease in reincarceration with a decrease in crime rates. A decrease in reincarceration is only less criminal offending, clearly a good thing, but it might not be enough to decrease increasing crime rates. In addition, this report includes victimless crimes and parole violations. Both of these are reason for reincarceration, but are not typically what the public thinks of when it thinks of ‘crime.’ “There are many factors that can increase reincarceration including the lack of housing, the lack of jobs, and drug addiction, .” There are many factors that can increase reincarceration. These include, but are not limited to: newly learned criminal endeavors while incarcerated • Fig c. new legislation that seeks to reincarcerate parolees for technical violations, which can also be understood as reincarceration for violations that are not necessarily crime The contents of this report has significance because once it is known where and how long it is before offenders return to the PPS, the City can appropriately allocate its resources to reducing the risks of reoffending. If the City knows which types of offenders are returning for drug offenses, violence, or property crimes, to name a few, it can better address treatment efforts before an inmate is released from the PPS. The City of Philadelphia needs to know who is reoffending in terms of age, zip code, race, ethnicity and gender, at what rate, and for what crimes. It needs to know what relationship exists between the Paul Heroux 9 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2007 • 2000-2007 - Percent of Inmates' First-Time Admission to the PPS 2006 the lack of job opportunities 2005 • 2004 old criminal habits not eliminated 2003 • 2002 the lack of adequate family or community support 2001 • 2000 the lack of housing upon release Percent of • Year Fig. b shows that the percentage of released inmates who had their first admission in the PPS. Between 2001 and 2007, Philadelphia incarcerated more first time inmates than the year before. This finding dispels the notion that the Prison’s growing population is caused by inmates returning to the PPS – Reincarceration is not really a driving factor in the Prison’s overcrowding. Inmate reincarceration contributed, but inmate reincarceration was actually decreasing between 2001 and 2006 (see page 26, bottom chart). Reincarceration in Philadelphia Number of Inmates Inmate Average Daily Admissions and Discharges 105 100 95 90 85 80 90 89 100 99 Fig d. 102 99 FY07 FY08 93 91 inmates’ length of stay and the amount of time elapsed before inmates return after release. How many inmates return? What direction has reincarceration taken in the past seven years? These and more questions will be answered in this report. But first, the City must understand what reincarceration is, and what limitations restrict the measuring of reincarceration. MEASURING REINCARCERATION FY05 FY06 Average Daily ADMISSIONS Average Daily RELEASES The PPS has experienced a 14.4% increase in inmate admissions since FY2005. In FY2005, the PPS admitted 90 inmates on an average day, while it discharged 89, a difference of one. However, in the current fiscal year, FY08, the PPS has been admitting an average per day of 102 inmates but discharging only 99, a difference of three. We are admitting more inmates but discharging fewer, and as we saw from Fig. 5 those that are staying are staying longer. Three additional daily admissions does not sound like a lot, but over the course of one year that amounts to an increase of 1,095 inmates. “Reincarceration is not the main factor in the Prison’s overcrowding.” As stated, this report does not make use of recidivism. Instead, this report examines reincarceration; a former inmate who is returned to the Philadelphia Prison System, within one year of release, for a new crime and/or a violation of parole (VOP). Despite Prison in its name, the PPS is a county jail that houses both pre-trial inmates (about 60-70%) and sentenced inmates (about 30-40%). This report does not distinguish between re-detained and re-sentenced. If an individual is a former inmate at the Philadelphia Prison System and is subsequently reincarcerated for a new crime or a VOP, that individual is included in these calculations. As with any definition of reincarceration, our definition is not without problems. For example, if a former inmate was re-detained but eventually released due to ‘dropped charges’ this inmate is included in this analysis as a reincarcerated offender. If an inmate was previously sentenced for a charge and re-detained on a new charge but has not yet been found guilty, this is also included here. This is a very conservative definition. However, with our operational definition clearly identified as reincarceration for a new crime or a VOP, there should be no confusion concerning what is being measured and what can be inferred and concluded from the data. Other problems with almost any definition include: Paul Heroux • An offender might commit a crime but never be caught. • An ex-offender might violate parole and subsequently reincarcerated, but a new crime never actually occurred. • An offender might commit crime, be caught, but post bail before being reincarcerated in the PPS. • An offender might move to another city, county, state or country and engage in criminal activity in a new location. 10 Reincarceration in Philadelphia • An offender might be killed while engaging in a criminal activity, or is currently incarcerated elsewhere. • An offender might be rearrested and use an alias; (the PPS has certain safeguards to identify these offenders but it is possible that a small number go undetected). This report measures the more clearly defined reincarceration since it is virtually impossible to measure recidivism flawlessly, where all crime committed by a former inmate is known, reported, and included in a measure of recidivism. Despite limitations, due to the enormous amount of data retrieved by the PPS Management Information Services (the Prison’s information technology department) as initially recorded by the PPS Classification, Movement and Registration Division (CMR), there is a substantial amount that can be determined from electronic records kept by the Philadelphia Prison System. This report considers every inmate discharged from the PPS between 1 January 2000 and 31 December 2006. This amounts to 232,638 inmate discharges. Of these 232,683 discharges, 45,613 remained in government custody. This leaves 187,025 discharges, of which, 96,330 inmates are represented. Many of these inmates posted bail and were then reincarcerated after being found guilty and sentenced to the PPS. Between 2000 and 2006, the PPS processed between 31,853 and 34,467 inmate discharges each year, which represented 24,243 to 28,765 different inmates in a year. In order to properly measure reincarceration, a designated time period must elapse; in this case it is at least one year. As such, this report does not consider any inmates released in 2007. Variables included in this report are each inmate’s age, sex, race, marital status, given home zip code at arrest (if any), length of stay in the PPS, time duration before returning to the PPS, most serious criminal charge, if the initial detention was the result of a parole or probation violation, reason for release from the PPS, number of total career incarcerations per inmate, number of incarcerations in a given year and the occurrence of serious mental illness. Total yearly counts will be inconsistent due to blank spots in computer data. At no juncture does this analysis discuss missing data, which is minimal in MIS. Paul Heroux 11 “Proactive, comprehensive reentry support is not a liberal ideology... reducing the risks of criminal reoffending upon release is a moral obligation.” Inmate Average Length of Stay (LOS) per Year Fig e. 100 80 74.1 76.4 80.1 87.8 88.9 89.7 90.5 91.3 60 40 20 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 The Length of Stay (LOS) for inmates has been increasing. In years past, the LOS was as low as 74 days; now it is about 91 days. If 36,000 inmate admissions stay an average of 74 days, the average daily population at the Prison will be 7299 inmates. However, if 36,000 inmates stay 91 days, as is presently the case, the average daily population at the Prison will be 8975 inmates. This shows the powerful impact of the increased LOS. Reincarceration in Philadelphia TREATMENT PROGRAM EFFECTIVENESS “45,613 inmate discharges remained in government custody leaving 187,025 discharges, of which, 96,330 inmates were represented.” This report does not measure the effectiveness of any PPS treatment program, nor can this report be used to make any conclusions about PPS treatment programs. As of the writing of this report, the PPS was not measuring whether or not its treatment programs are effective in reducing reincarceration. To do so would require either the preferred method, a randomized experiment with a control group, or the less preferred but still effective method, a matched pair statistical analysis. To do the former would involve the cooperation of the courts and expert researchers. To do the latter would involve enormous amounts of pre- and post-release information and expert academic researchers, neither of which the PPS has. Either method compares a treatment group to an similar control group. The standard in measuring treatment programs is described in Sherman’s book Evidence-Based Crime Prevention, and in MacKenzie’s book What Works in Corrections. In these publications, the authors describe a 1-5 level methodology hierarchy with the higher levels offering more confidence in results while lower levels don’t offer any confidence. These levels are as follows. No confidence in research results Level 1: This level indicates some correlation between the program and measure(s) of recidivism. Usually there was no comparison group. Studies in this category should be judged to be so low in scientific rigor that they are not used to assess the effectiveness of the correctional program. Level 2: These studies indicate some association between the program and recidivism but were severely limited because many alternative explanations could not be ruled out, given the research design. Frequently in the correctional evaluations, these studies used dropouts and no variables were included in the statistical analysis to control for initial difference between groups. Confidence Levels in research results Level 3: These contained a comparison between two or more groups, one receiving the program and one without the program. The assignment of inmates and the statistical analysis assured reasonable similarity between the treated group and the Paul Heroux 12 Reincarceration in Philadelphia comparison group(s). Double blind, and controls for placebo are often considered. Level 4: This level indicates a comparison between a program group and one or more control groups with controls for other factors or a nonequivalent comparison group that is only slightly different from the program group. Double blind, and controls for placebo are considered Level 5: This level is considered the “gold standard” because studies in this level employ random assignment and analysis of comparable programs and comparison groups, including controls for attrition. Double blind, and controls for placebo are considered. “Level 1-2” analysis does not account for other variables that may be responsible for any observed change in criminal behavior. For the PPS to do “Level 3-5” measurements, it would need to make use of experienced university level researchers. Generally speaking, university professors in criminology, sociology and psychology departments, to name a few, have the experience and skill set needed to properly measure a treatment program beyond the level of simple correlation and suggestive associations. “This report does not measure the effectiveness of any PPS treatment program, nor can this report be used to make any conclusions about PPS treatment programs.” The PPS does not measure programs, however the PPS has hired an intelligent, caring and well intentioned staff dedicated to reducing reincarceration and facilitating prisoner re-entry in Philadelphia. While the PPS does not measure the outcomes of its treatment programs, it does make use of evidence-based programs such as therapeutic communities for drug offenders, cognitive behavioral therapy for violence and sexually violent offenders, and GED and vocational training programs. It would be ideal to measure treatment efforts but the fact that the PPS does not is not necessarily reason for alarm. For example, a similar situation can be drawn to medical doctors’ use of prescription drugs: they do not empirically measure the outcomes of each patient they serve, but they do make use of already proven medications that they proscribe. Generally speaking, it is the same principle with the Philadelphia Prison System’s Restorative and Transitional Services (RTS) department, or more commonly thought of as the PPS ‘treatment staff.’ As stated, to measure treatment programs accurately, a randomized experiment or matched pairing is necessary, but not sufficient. A well planned study of the effectiveness of treatment programs would have Paul Heroux 13 Reincarceration in Philadelphia “...to measure treatment programs accurately, a randomized experiment or matched pairing is necessary…” Paul Heroux to take into consideration that both a control group and treatment group received the same level of aftercare upon release from the PPS. Another variable that must be considered are laws that reincarcerate parolees for technical violations. Another point on measuring treatment programs includes the proper identification of outputs and outcomes. The number of inmates served is an ‘output.’ the change in behavior is an ‘outcome.’ The only way to determine an ‘outcome’ is to do a study that makes use of a control group and a treatment group. Treatment programs aimed at reducing reincarceration can be measured, but treatment programs have not been assessed in this report. In addition, there is virtually nothing that can be implicated about the effectiveness of treatment programs by comparing the rates of reincarceration in the PPS to other jurisdictions. Extreme care should go into measuring the effectiveness of treatment programs. Incorrect measurement could lead to a false sense of security and jeopardize public safety, and taxpayers could waste millions of dollars on ineffective programs. 14 Reincarceration in Philadelphia GENERAL FINDINGS ON REINCARCERATION This section includes information on offenses discharges and readmitted to the PPS, the relationship between SMI and Reincarceration, and the number of career admissions for PPS inmates in 2006. Paul Heroux 15 Reincarceration in Philadelphia 2006 Cohort - Incarcerated Inmates' Most Serious Charge Sexual Violence Related 3% Violence Related 33% Weapons Related 1% Sex Crime Related 1% Property Crime Related 8% Other Legal Violation 6% Drug Related 48% The pie chart above illustrates the individual inmates most serious reason for admission to PPS in 2006 including the number of inmates and the percent. The below pie chart illustrates the individual inmates most serious reason for reincarceration to the PPS in 2006, including the number of inmates and percent. It is of note that incarceration related to sexual violence decreased from 3.4% to 1.65%. One of the interesting findings in this study was the sexually violent offenders more often than not are reincarcerated for non-sexual violence offense, whereas drug, property and violent offenders are reincarcerated more often than not for the same charge type. These pie charts include inmate duplicates, which are inmates reincarcerated multiple times. 2006 Cohort - Reincarcerated Inmates' Most Serious Charge Sexual Violence Violence Related Related 33% 2% Sex Crime Related 1% Property Crime Related 8% Weapons Related 1% Other Legal Violation 3% Paul Heroux Drug Related 52% 16 Reincarceration in Philadelphia 2006 Cohort - Average Number of Incarcerations per Person by Charge 6 Average Number of Incarcerations 5.08 5 4.43 4.48 4.23 4 3.57 2.99 3 2.10 2 1.81 1 0 Drug Related Violence Related Sexual Violence Related Property Crime Related Sex Crime Related Other Legal Violation Weapons Related Total Average Charge Category The average number of incarcerations per person in 2006 by charge is listed in fig 12 above. Drug related reincarcerations are the most frequent reason for an offender’s return to the PPS, followed by violence related charges. Not seen in the figure above is that drug offenders tend to return to the PPS for drug related charges, whereas ‘violence’ related offenders tend to return for both ‘violence’ and ‘drug related’ charges. Sexual violence offenders return to the PPS at a very high rate, however, these offenders are not returning for sexual violence related crimes. The majority of the time they are returning for non-sexual violence related offenses. This is consistent with research b Western and Clear that a sex offender record poses more barriers to reentry than other offenders face. The risk of re-offense is not as high and the severity is very significant. This bar graph includes inmate duplicates. Paul Heroux 17 Reincarceration in Philadelphia 2006 Cohort - Reincarcerated Inmates: Less than 1 Year 6,000 Number of Inmates 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 Drug Related Violence Related Property Crime Related 1 to 90 days Other Legal Violation 91 to 180 days Sexual Violence Related Sex Crime Weapons Related Related 181 to 270 days N/A 271 to 365 days In the graph above, all inmates reincarcerated in the PPS within the first year of their release are listed by reincarceration interval and most serious charge (often inmates have multiple charges so this analysis makes use of the most serious charge.) This chart includes inmate duplicates—inmates who are reincarcerated more than once. From this, we learn that the largest number of inmates returning to the PPS within the first year are incarcerated on drug related charges; this holds true all the way down to the quarter year intervals. The leading drug related offenses are distribution related. However, distribution related drug offenses outweigh possession related drug offenses by a factor of 4 to 1. There are two possible explanations for this: 1) more distributors get caught than possessors; and 2) the legal level that constitutes distribution is so low that many offenders who are caught possessing with an intention of personal use are charged with distribution. However, we also learn that violence is the second leading reason that inmates are reincarcerated in the PPS. Not seen in the chart above, the leading violence charge is robbery. In-prison treatment efforts should seek to reduce drug possession and distribution related attitudes and behaviors, and re-entry efforts need to continue to focus on decreasing offenders’ addictive behaviors (Travis, 2005). We also learn than anger management is very important to decrease the occurrence of violence (Mackenzie, 2006). However, robbery, often an instrumental crime, could be decreased by targeting its causes, i.e. lack of job opportunities and dire socioeconomic conditions. The City should invest substantial resources in either the FY 09, and if it is too late, the FY10 for these recommendations in this report. Paul Heroux 18 Reincarceration in Philadelphia 2006 Cohort - Reincarcerated Female Inmates: Less than 1 Year 800 Number of Female Inmates 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Drug Related Violence Related Property Crime Related 1 to 90 days Other Legal Violation 91 to 180 days Sexual Violence Related Sex Crime Related 181 to 270 days Weapons Related N/A 271 to 365 days Above, we examine 2006 data for the reincarceration reason for female offenders returning within the first year. Female offenders have returned to the PPS for violence related charges at a greater rate than have male offenders. Females reincarcerated for drug related offenses within the first 90 days is about equal to females returning for violence related offenses. This chart includes inmate duplicates—inmates who are reincarcerated more than once. Unlike males, females returning for violence related offenses are not returning predominately for robbery related charges; instead they are returning for assault related offenses. Violence for females seems to be less the product of instrumental crime, and more the result of other factors. Drug treatment related to both use and distribution needs to be a high priority for female offenders. Anger management should also be considered as a necessary component for successful female offender reentry. Paul Heroux 19 Reincarceration in Philadelphia 2006 Cohort - Career Incarcerations 7,000 Number of Inmates 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 30 34 Number of Career Incarcerations The number of career incarcerations for each inmate discharged in 2006 that have been recorded by the PPS Lock and Track System since 1989 are plotted above. From this we learn that: • 78% of the inmates have 2 or more incarcerations. • 62% of the inmates have 3 or more incarcerations. • 48% of the inmates have 4 or more incarcerations. • 37% of the inmates have 5 or more incarcerations. • 28% of the inmates have 6 or more incarcerations. • 10% of the inmates have 10 or more incarcerations. • 5% of the inmates have 12 or more incarcerations. • Less than 1% of the inmates have 18 or more incarcerations. Upon investigation of the individuals with 10 or more incarcerations, serious mental illness is a frequent characteristic (next page). Qualifications: It cannot be concluded from the above figure that 78% of the inmates who enter the PPS recidivate. This is a snapshot of all discharged inmate from one year and the number of admissions in their criminal history. What is not included is the number of inmates who did not come back to the PPS that are admitted and discharged to the PPS each year of the years above that incarcerations occurred. If these former inmates were included, the percentages above would be drastically lower. In addition, this is a look at “reincarceration”, as such, many inmates who posted bail and then were released, were then subsequently reincarcerated after being sentenced on the same initial charge. This represents only the total number of reincarcerations, not necessarily a reflection of the crime rate or recidivism. Paul Heroux 20 Reincarceration in Philadelphia January 2008 Daily Population Snap Shot Seriously Mentally Ill and Career Incarcerations 1 1 2 8 17 1 1 2 3 2 1 6 16 25 44 49 48 46 89 94 103 66 132 157 441 148 72 556 154 199 739 138 95 848 188 214 1,032 321 1,139 185 60% 22 80% 1,399 40% 2 9 11 13 15 17 1 7 5 5 6 3 13 1 2 26 0% 29 20% 101 Percent SMI or Not SMI 100% 19 21 23 25 33 Career Admissions SMI Not SMI Above, using more recent data from January 2008, we find that as the number of career incarcerations increases, the percentage of inmates with serious mental illness (SMI) increases. The implication behind this finding is that our local criminal justice system is using incarceration to address the consequences of unregulated serious mental illness. There are more appropriate alternative sanctions that could be used to decrease the likelihood of reincarceration including day reporting, probation and mental health courts. Alternative sanctions, such as the aforementioned, have been found to be more effective in reducing reoffending than incarceration (Mackenzie, 2006), and are also overwhelmingly more appropriate to address the needs of the seriously mentally ill than incarceration. Below, we see the charges associated with SMI inmates. “Sex Crime Related” offenses is represented by about 80% female prostitutes. In addition, the length of stay for SMI inmates is about 142 days whereas the LOS for non-SMI inmates is about 90 days, which is about 58% more expensive in terms of inmate bed costs alone; this does not take into consideration the enormous costs that are needed to staff mental health professionals and provide psychotropic medication. Note: after 13 admissions, the statistical accuracy begins to decrease when we have fewer and fewer inmates who have more than 13 career admissions. Typically, researchers need at least 30 people to make any confident conclusions about data. This, however, does not detract from the finding that as the number of incarcerations increases, we find a greater percent of seriously mentally ill inmates. In addition, this January 2008 population snapshot identifies inmates who had or currently have a SMI; this is not to say that all identified inmates are currently suffering from a SMI. Seriously Mentally Ill and Charge 20 59 25% Chil ted Rel a l ate d d Re e Cri m Se x e Re ted lenc Re la l Vi o s pon lat ed io n te d Rel a at Vi ol ega l rim e rt y C 21 a Se xu Wea er L O th pe Pro d e la te la ted R nce g Re e Vi o l D ru SMI 6 68 51 152 282 564 386 0% Paul Heroux 241 448 551 917 2,153 50% 64 75% 2,820 Percent SMI or Not SMI 100% Not SMI Reincarceration in Philadelphia REINCARCERATION: 2000-2006 This report will examine data on inmate discharges from 2000-2006. In general, reincarceration decreased between 2000 and 2006. The reincarceration rate in Philadelphia is about 35% per year. Paul Heroux 22 Reincarceration in Philadelphia 2000-2006 Inmate Reincarcerations Within the First Year of Release With Duplicates 14,000 Number of Inmate Reincarcerations 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Year 1 to 90 Days 91 to 180 Days 181 to 270 Days 271 to 365 Days Above, we see that reincarceration appears to have decreased between 2001 and 2003 and then increased between 2004 and 2006. However, these are raw counts that do not take into consideration the number of total admissions. The above figures include duplicates, which are inmates who return to the PPS more than once. Below, the figure shows the percent of inmates who are reincarcerated after release from the PPS, factoring out the duplicates. Percent Of Inmates Reincarcerated Within the First Year of Release 2000-2006 Rate of Reincarceration for All Crimes Without Duplicates 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Year Paul Heroux 23 Reincarceration in Philadelphia 2000-2006 Inmate Drug Related Reincarcerations Within the First Year of Release - With Duplicates 7,000 Number of Inmate Reincarcerations 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Year 1 to 90 Days 91 to 180 Days 181 to 270 Days 271 to 365 Days The figure above shows the number of inmate drug related reincarcerations by quarter. The figure below shows that between 2004 and 2006, drug related reincarcerations were lower than they were in the 4 years prior. The City should continue to allocate resources to the PPS to decrease drug related offending. If drug related reincarceration can be decreased, the large number of inmates who do not return to the PPS relieves resources to address other, more dangerous offenders. Percent Of Inmates Reincarcerated Within the First Year of Release 2000-2006 Rate of Reincarceration for Drug Related Crimes Without Duplicates 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Year Paul Heroux 24 Reincarceration in Philadelphia 2000-2006 Inmate Violence Related Reincarcerations Within the First Year of Release - With Duplicates 4,500 Number of Inmate Reincarcerations 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Year 1 to 90 Days 91 to 180 Days 181 to 270 Days 271 to 365 Days Seen above, from 2001 to 2004 there was a decrease reincarceration related to violence. However, in 2005, the PPS started to see a significant increase in reincarceration due to violence. However, seen below, between 2001 and 2006, the percentage of reincarcerated offenders due to violence decreased as a percent of total violence related discharges. So if crime in the City is increasing, it is not due to recidivist, it is due to first time offenders. Not seen in here: robbery is the leading cause of violence at about 40% of the violence charges, followed by aggravated assault at about 25% of the violence charges. Percent Of Inmates Reincarcerated Within the First Year of Release 2000-2006 Percent of Reincarcerated Inmates Discharged for Violence - Without Duplicates 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Year Paul Heroux 25 Reincarceration in Philadelphia Number of Inmate Reincarcerations 2000-2006 Inmate Sex Violence Related Reincarcerations Within the First Year of Release - With Duplicates 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Year 1 to 90 Days 91 to 180 Days 181 to 270 Days 271 to 365 Days The graph above shows that there has been a leveling of sexual violence reincarcerations between 2002 and 2006. In treating sexual violence, cognitive-behavioral therapy/relapse prevention and chemical castration/ psychotherapy have been shown to be effective in reducing sexual violence recidivism (Mackenzie, 2006). Number of Inmate Reincarcerations 2000-2006 Inmate Property Crimes Related Reincarcerations Within the First Year of Release - With Duplicates 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Year 1 to 90 Days 91 to 180 Days 181 to 270 Days 271 to 365 Days Above is a summary of all reincarcerated inmates who returned to the PPS within one year for a property crime. Since 2004 property crime has increased nearly 50%. Making use of ‘hot-spot’ policing techniques and improved lighting in high crime areas can decrease crime in specific areas (Sherman, 2002). In addition, improving the racial and economic disparity in the City is an effective means of decreasing crime (Pager, 2007; Western 2006). Paul Heroux 26 Reincarceration in Philadelphia OVERCROWDING AND REINCARCERATION In completing this report, one of the most timely and significant findings is that reincarceration is not a cause of the Philadelphia Prison System’s current overcrowding crisis. Paul Heroux 27 Reincarceration in Philadelphia 2000-2007 - Percent of Inmates' First-Time Admission to the PPS 35% 30% Percent of 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 0% Year The above chart shows that the percentage of released inmates who had their first admission in the PPS. Between 2001 and 2007, Philadelphia incarcerated more first time inmates than the year before. This finding dispels the notion that the Prison’s growing population is caused by inmates returning to the PPS – Reincarceration is not really a driving factor in the Prison’s overcrowding. Inmate reincarceration contributed, but inmate reincarceration was actually decreasing between 2001 and 2006 (see page 24, bottom chart). Note that the above chart cannot be inverted to find recidivism rates. In other words, in 2007, it cannot be concluded from this chart that 71% is our reincarceration number. Each number represents one year’s worth of first time admissions, while reincarcerations extend back over many years. As such, the two would not be a uniform comparison. The primary factors in driving the PPS’ population are length of stay and increased admissions. Next page. Population Inmates Citizens per Inmate Cook County (Chicago) 5.3 million 9,800 540 Los Angeles County 9.9 million 21,000 471 New York City 8 million 14,000 571 Philadelphia County 1.4 million 9,100 153 Above we see that Philadelphia has more inmates per citizen than any other of the major cities in the United States, but still does not have a lower crime rate. This suggests that an alternative to incarceration crime strategy is necessary. This information was originally provided by the author in a report dated 9 November 2007 from the PPS Commissioner Leon King to then Mayor-Elect Michael Paul Heroux 28 Reincarceration in Philadelphia Inmate Average Daily Admissions and Discharges Number of Inmates The PPS has experienced a 14.4% increase in inmate admis105 102 100 99 99 sions since FY2005. In FY2005, 100 the PPS admitted 90 inmates on 93 an average day, while it dis95 91 90 89 charged 89, a difference of one. 90 However, in the current fiscal year, FY08, the PPS has been 85 admitting an average per day of 80 102 inmates but discharging FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 only 99, a difference of three. We are admitting more inmates Average Daily ADMISSIONS Average Daily RELEASES but discharging fewer, and as we can see in the fig below, inmates are staying are staying longer. This information was originally provided by the author in a report dated 9 November 2007 from the PPS Commissioner Leon King to then Mayor-Elect Michael Nutter. Three additional daily admissions does not sound like a lot, but over the course of one year that amounts to an increase of 1,095 inmates. The Length of Stay (LOS) for inmates has been increasing. In years past, the LOS was as low as 74 days; now it is about 91 days. If 36,000 inmate admissions stay an average of 74 days, the average daily population at the Prison will be 7299 inmates. However, if 36,000 inmates stay 91 days, as is presently the case, the average daily population at the Prison will be 8975 inmates. This shows the powerful impact of the increased LOS. For additional LOS data, see page 37. Inmate Average Length of Stay (LOS) per Year 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 74.1 76.4 80.1 87.8 88.9 89.7 90.5 91.3 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Paul Heroux 29 By way of comparison, Maricopa County (Phoenix, AZ) has an average LOS of 26.8 days. Maricopa County/Phoenix was the sixth largest City/County in the United States, but recently moved one spot up in the rankings, replacing Philadelphia as the 5th largest City/Count in the US. It cannot be said that the decrease in reincarceration is due to an increase in LOS. Starting on page 37, this notion is examined and these analyses show that an inmates individual LOS is unrelated to reincarceration. This information was originally provided in a report dated 9 November 2007 from the PPS Commissioner Leon King to then Mayor-Elect Michael Nutter. Reincarceration in Philadelphia REINCARCERATION AND AGE Paul Heroux 30 Reincarceration in Philadelphia 2006 Cohort - First Year Reincarcerations by Age and Sex Number of Inmate Reincarcerations 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53 55 57 59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 Age Female Male The most frequently occurring age for an inmate is 20 years old. Females offend at consistent rates throughout their 20s, 30s but start to desist in their 40s. This chart includes inmate duplicates—inmates who are reincarcerated more than once. Paul Heroux 31 Reincarceration in Philadelphia 2006 Cohort - First Year Reincarcerations by Age and Race/Hispanic Ethnicity Number of Inmate Reincarcerations 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53 55 57 59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 Age AFRICAN AMERICAN HISPANIC WHITE Black offenders are reincarcerated at the highest rate in their early 20s, whereas white offenders are reincarcerated at the highest rate in their mid-20s. Black offenders desist in their offending before white males, but both groups tend to continue a high rate of reincarceration until about their 40s. This chart includes inmate duplicates—inmates who are reincarcerated more than once. Paul Heroux 32 Reincarceration in Philadelphia 2006 Cohort - First Year Reincarcerations by Age and Sex Number of Inmate Reincarcerations 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 15 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 Age 1 to 90 days 91 to 180 days 181 to 270 days 271 to 365 days Most offenders reincarcerated within the first year of release are 20 years old. This chart includes inmate duplicates—inmates who are reincarcerated more than once. Paul Heroux 33 Reincarceration in Philadelphia 2006 Cohort - Drug Related First Year Reincarcerations by Age and Year Quarters Number of Inmate Reincarcerations 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 72 75 73 75 77 Age 1 to 90 days 91 to 180 days 181 to 270 days 271 to 365 days The age distribution above indicates that drug related charges are primarily activity associated with young offenders. This chart includes inmate duplicates—inmates who are reincarcerated more than once. Paul Heroux 34 Reincarceration in Philadelphia 2006 Cohort - Viollence Related First Year Reincarcerations by Age and Sex Number of Inmate Reincarcerations 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60 63 65 73 Age 1 to 90 days 91 to 180 days 181 to 270 days 271 to 365 days The graph above shows the frequency of first-year reincarcerated inmates by age. Violence tends to most frequently occur in males in their early twenties, and then starts to taper off by mid to late 20s. The rate of occurrence remains fairly stable until about the mid 40s, and then gradually starts to decline again. This chart includes inmate duplicates—inmates who are reincarcerated more than once. Paul Heroux 35 Reincarceration in Philadelphia 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 2006 Sex Offenders Reincarcerated with in the First Year 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53 55 57 59 61 67 69 72 Age Average Age of Group (Red Line) Sex offenders tend to return to the PPS as older adults rather than younger adults. This could be for several reasons: 1) Older Caucasian men tend to be the most violent sexual cohort; or 2) Sex offenders reoffend after release from a long stay at the state level department of corrections. Sex offender reentry efforts are important for a number of reasons, including risk of reoffending as well as risk of committing new crimes resulting from being institutionalized or the unique reentry issues faced by released sex offenders. Reincarceration in Philadelphia 36 Paul Heroux Number of Inmates (Blue Bars) REINCARCERATION AND INMATE LENGTH OF STAY There is a widespread belief that increasing the length of stay (LOS) will deter offenders from reoffending. Using the 2006 cohort, this deterrent notion is examined. The 2006 cohort is used because it offers the most up to date information on reincarceration within the first year after release. Not seen in this report, is an examination of 2000-2005 data which also yields consistent results when compared to the findings in 2006. These findings strongly suggest that extended LOS does not reduce recidivism. A more scientific analysis using risk assessment tools is necessary to definitively prove this. Paul Heroux 37 Reincarceration in Philadelphia Average Length of Stay by Charge 2000 & 2006 Cohorts 140 117 120 LOS in Days 100 80 91 87 84 69 66 60 84 65 58 61 44 42 40 30 30 29 23 20 0 39% 26% 38% 5% 0% 45% 91% 29% Sexual Violence Related Violence Related Drug Related Property Crime Related Sex Crime Related Other Legal Violation Weapons Related Grand Total 2000 Cohort 2006 Cohort Above, the average length of stay (LOS) is given for each charge category for 2000 and 2006. The percent given between the two years is the percent increase from 2000 to 2006. This chart and all of these LOS charts do not make use of duplicates. For the sake of ease in reading the graph, 2001-2005 are not included. While, two points don’t make a trend, if 2001-2005 were included, a clear upward trend would be apparent. This means the LOS has been consistently increasing. Between 2000 and 2006 the increase was 29%. This finding has significance in terms of the PPS population. As a hypothetical admissions count, but using real LOS figures, if the PPS admitted 30,000 inmates in 2000, and admitted 30,000 in 2006, based on LOS alone, the average daily population for each year would be 5,342 inmates in 2000 but 6,904 in 2006. LOS has contributed significantly to the PPS’s growing population. A longer LOS can occur for any number of reasons. For example, an increased case load at the District Attorney’s and the Public Defender’s offices, or legislation that increases the LOS as a penalty for committing crime. The City needs invest additional money and resources into the Court system to addresses this problem. Solving the legal stalemate over funding the Courts may prove critical. Please refer to the Goldkamp report submitted to the City of Philadelphia, and then Commissioner King’s report to then Mayor Elect Michael Nutter on 9 November 2007 for important recommendations in reducing the prison population. Both reports note that while the caseload for the First Judicial District increased over the last few years, there has been no commensurate increase in resources. This increased caseload is inmate length of stay and is a major factor causing overcrowding in the Philadelphia Prison System Paul Heroux 38 Reincarceration in Philadelphia 2006 Cohort - Reincarceration in the First Year and Length of Stay in the PPS 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 167 128 263 559 517 675 1,009 5,270 20% 10% 0% a) 0-49 days b) 50-99 days c) 100-149 d) 150-199 e) 200-299 f) 300-399 g) 400-499 days days days days days h) 500+ days Reincarcerated in one year or less The graph above examines the LOS and its effects on offender reincarceration. The average rate of reincarceration in the first year is between 35 and 40%. First year reincarceration was unaffected by whether inmates stayed between 0-49 days or for 500+ days; the rate of reincarceration did not decrease as the LOS increased. As such, we cannot say that a longer LOS decreases reincarceration in Philadelphia County. Note that this analysis does not consider inmate risk of reincarceration, which is necessary to determine with confidence that LOS is in fact unrelated to deterrence. A question often arises about why LOS would not deter. The answer is fairly straightforward. Inmates often become institutionalized whereby they become dependent on the secure housing, meals and healthcare that are Constitutionally guaranteed while incarcerated; for some, this may abrogate any deterrent effects incarceration may offer. But more importantly, significant numbers of inmates face barriers to reentry that include difficulties finding work, lack of educational and opportunities to gain the skills for work, lack of housing options, and isolation from family (Clear, 2007). It could also be said that long incarceration LOS does deter future offending, however the aforementioned iatrogenic effects of incarceration undermine any deterrent effect. Work, education, housing, and family are all important factors that assist an ex-inmate and decrease the likelihood of reincarceration. Paul Heroux 39 Reincarceration in Philadelphia 2006 Cohort - Drug Related Reincarceration in the First Year and Length of Stay in the PPS 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 94 71 160 306 b) 50-99 days 302 472 a) 0-49 days 347 2,804 20% 10% 0% c) 100-149 d) 150-199 e) 200-299 f) 300-399 g) 400-499 days days days days days h) 500+ days Reincarcerated in one year or less Within the first year of release, the rate of reincarceration for offenders who stay in the PPS for 500+ days is within the range of normal fluctuation as individuals staying in the PPS for 0-49 days. Below, using 2000 cohort data, which can examine the effect of LOS beyond the first year of release, reincarceration increases just less than 10% compared to a 0-49 days LOS. If there is any deterrent effect of incarceration, it seems to evaporate with each successive year after release. This analysis, however, does not consider inmate risk of reincarceration, which is necessary to determine with confidence that LOS is, in fact, unrelated to deterrence. Paul Heroux 40 Reincarceration in Philadelphia 2006 Cohort - Violence Related Reincarceration in the First Year and Length of Stay in the PPS 100% 80% 60% 40% 58 45 89 194 b) 50-99 days 164 407 a) 0-49 days 246 1,611 20% 0% c) 100-149 d) 150-199 e) 200-299 f) 300-399 g) 400-499 days days days days days h) 500+ days Reincarcerated in one year or less The effect length of stay in the PPS has on the rate of sexual violence related reincarcerations is seen above. There is no consistent relationship between length of stay (LOS) and inmate reincarceration. This analysis, however, does not consider inmate risk of reincarceration, which is necessary to determine with confidence that LOS is, in fact, unrelated to deterrence. Compared to drug offenders or violent offenders who are predominately young black males, sex offenders are represented with less disparity than and come from different socioeconomic classes, races and ages. The numerous factors that effect sex offender reentry are likely responsible for the observed fluctuations in reincarcerations rates. Paul Heroux 41 Reincarceration in Philadelphia 2006 Cohort - Sexual Violence Related Reincarceration in the First Year and Length of Stay in the PPS 100% 80% 60% 40% 23 10 35 40 b) 50-99 days c) 100-149 d) 150-199 e) 200-299 f) 300-399 g) 400-499 days days days days days 125 20% 7 8 10 0% a) 0-49 days h) 500+ days Reincarcerated in one year or less Longer length of stay is not correlated with decreases in reincarceration for inmates incarcerated on a sexual violence related charge. As with other charges, institutionalization and/or barriers to reentry may account for the increase in reincarceration (Petersilia, 2003). This analysis, however, does not consider inmate risk of reincarceration, which is necessary to determine with confidence that LOS is, in fact, unrelated to deterrence. Paul Heroux 42 Reincarceration in Philadelphia REINCARCERATION AND EDUCATION LEVEL The following analysis will examine reincarceration from the year 2006 which contains the cohort that is the most up-to-date data that can be used for this analysis. Paul Heroux 43 Reincarceration in Philadelphia 2006 Cohort - Education Level and Reincarceration in the First Year 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 91 399 3,545 4,352 89 20% 10% 0% 1-6 Grade 7-11 Grade 12th Grade Some College College Degree 1 year or less The chart above shows that as an inmates level of education increases, the percent of first year reincarcerations decreases. The chart below shows the same pattern, but for females only. 2006 Cohort - Female Education Level and Reincarceration in the First Year 100% 80% 60% 40% 559 94 7-11 Grade 12th Grade Some College 20 703 20 20% 0% 1-6 Grade College Degree 1 year or less Paul Heroux 44 Reincarceration in Philadelphia 2006 Cohort - Black Education Level and Reincarceration in the First Year 25 2,982 2,609 272 63 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 1-6 Grade 7-11 Grade 12th Grade Some College College Degree 1 year or less The chart above shows that for black inmates, the percent of reincarcerations decreases as educational attainment increases. 2006 Cohort - Hispanic Education Level and Reincarceration in the First Year 598 255 26 1-6 Grade 7-11 Grade 12th Grade Some College 2 47 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% College Degree 1 year or less The chart above and below shows that for Hispanic and white inmates, the percent of reincarcerations decreases as educational attainment increases. 2006 Cohort - White Education Level and Reincarceration in the First Year 95 7-11 Grade 12th Grade Some College 23 666 1-6 Grade 740 17 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% College Degree 1 year or less Paul Heroux 45 Reincarceration in Philadelphia 2006 Cohort - Percent of Inmates Reincarcerated within the First Year by Charge and by Education Level 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 1-6 Grade 7-11 Grade 27 29 3 Violence Related 26 1866 1580 184 Sexual Violence Related 5 115 124 10 1 39 39 5 3 373 383 71 27 Weapons Related Sex Crime Related Property Crime Related 7 12th Grade Some College College Degree 42 Other Legal Violation 1 116 149 30 12 Drug Related 79 3257 2413 226 31 The chart above shows the percentile representation of charge by education level. Of particular note is the increasing drug related reincarceration for inmates with lower levels of education. Also, the high percent of reincarceration for property crime and other legal violations associated with inmates with college degrees. Below, is the percentile representation of admissions to the PPS by charge category and educational level. The same salient patterns occur with admitted inmates as with readmitted/reincarcerated inmates. 2006 Cohort - Percent of Inmates Incarcerated within the First Year by Charge and by Education Level 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 1-6 Grade Weapons Related Paul Heroux 7-11 Grade 12th Grade Some College 97 150 18 College Degree 1 460 105 11 Violence Related 81 4278 3649 Sexual Violence Related 11 299 338 36 Sex Crime Related 1 92 89 10 7 Property Crime Related 22 887 1013 188 67 Other Legal Violation 22 506 762 171 76 Drug Related 171 6532 5197 582 116 46 Reincarceration in Philadelphia REINCARCERATION AND VIOLATION OF PAROLE The following analysis will examine reincarceration from the year 2000 cohort of released inmates, and then from the 2006 cohort. The 2000 cohort is used because VOP occurs at a greater frequency after the second year following release than general reincarceration. The 2006 Cohort is used because it is the most up-to-date data that can be used in this analysis. This analysis does not include inmate duplicates—inmates who are reincarcerated more than once. Paul Heroux 47 Reincarceration in Philadelphia 2000 Cohort - Percent of Inmates Reincarcerated and When the VOP Occurred after Release 100% 80% 6626 1961 958 655 60% 448 381 309 83 40% 20% 0% First year Second Year Third Year Fourth Year Parole Violator Fifth Year Sixth Year Seventh Year Eighth Year Not a Violation of Parole The second year after release has the greatest percentage of parole violation reincarcerations relative to the number of total reincarcerations for that year. Above is the number of inmate discharges from year 2000 that resulted in reincarceration. Most discharges result in reincarceration within the first year, and the greatest number of parole violations occur within the first year as well. However, (using the graph on the opposite page) the second year has the greatest percentage of parole violation reincarcerations relative to the number of total reincarcerations for that year. On average, about 26% of the discharges that result in a reincarceration within the PPS are from violation of parole. These reincarcerations are not new crimes but stem from technical violations of parole including but not limited to not holding a job, missing appointments with a parole officer, traveling out of jurisdiction, failing a drug test, which is not a crime, whereas possession or distribution of drugs is a new crime. If an individual on parole committed a new crime, such as being caught possessing or distributing drugs, this individual is not identified here as a VOP; he or she would be identified as having committed a new crime. Paul Heroux 48 Reincarceration in Philadelphia 2006 Cohort - VOP and Lenght of Stay 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 901 563 411 426 199 100-149 days 150-199 days 200-299 days 300-399 days 90 130 5,335 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 0-49 days 50-99 days Violation of Parole 400-499 days 500+ days New Crime Looking at all reincarcerations from the 2006 discharge cohort, there is a strong correlation between an inmates length of stay (LOS) and the prevalence of a violation of parole (VOP). This analysis, however, does not consider inmate risk of reincarceration, which is necessary to determine with confidence that LOS is in-fact unrelated to deterrence. As inmates stay longer in the PPS, the prevalence of a VOP increases. The VOP reincarcerations are a subset of the inmates who reoffend. While the difference between reincarceration based on 0-49 days and 500+ days was about 10% in general, the increase for VOP is more dramatic increasing from about 20% to about 45%. This could suggest that 1) a longer LOS increases the probability of an inmate violating parole due to institutionalization and/or the barriers to reentry that returning offenders face, or 2) that inmates who stay shorter periods of time are less likely to violate parole due to personal characteristics. Paul Heroux 49 Reincarceration in Philadelphia 2006 Cohort - VOP Reincarcerated and Most Serious Charge Category 100% 90% 80% 70% 166 4,190 225 638 64 Drug Related Other Legal Violation Property Crime Related Sex Crime Related 60% 2,713 42 8,038 Violence Related Weapons Related Grand Total 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Sexual Violence Related Violation of Parole New Crime Looking at all reincarcerations from the 2006 discharge cohort, the percent of inmates faced with violation of parole varies by charge type. Non-violent Sex Crimes have the lowest amount of parole violations and Sexual Violence Related has the highest, which could be read another way: sexually violent offenders have the lowest rate of new criminal offenses. With regards to drug related VOP, the practice of screening for drugs in parolees is partly responsible for the high rate of VOP. Paul Heroux 50 Reincarceration in Philadelphia 2006 Cohort - VOP and Age Range 100% 80% 4 11 33 20,139 100 363 752 928 950 995 1,411 2,157 60% 349 40% 20% 0% 15 to 20 to 25 to 30 to 35 to 40 to 45 to 50 to 55 to 60 to 65 to 70 to Grand 19 24 29 34 39 44 49 54 59 64 69 74 Total Violation of Parole New Crime Looking at all reincarcerations from the 2006 discharge cohort, violation of parole tends to remain constant with age. Males and females tend to violate parole at about the same rate in each age category (page 52). This does not follow the same pattern as seen in general desistance (page 27). In general, desistance begins in the early 20s for males. VOP occurs in a relatively stable manner up to about the mid 40s. Therefore, it would be reasonable to assume that offenders who are returning to the PPS as they get older are returning for VOP at a far greater rate than new crimes are occurring. Paul Heroux 51 Reincarceration in Philadelphia 2000 Cohort - VOP and Race 100% 90% 80% 70% 35 5,677 885 1,438 8,035 ASIAN AFRICAN AMERICAN HISPANIC WHITE Grand Total 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Violation of Parole New Crime Looking at reincarcerations within the first year from discharges in the 2006, Asians, blacks, whites and Hispanics all violate parole at about the same rate. Paul Heroux 52 Reincarceration in Philadelphia 2006 Cohort - VOP and Marital Status 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 939 19,383 3,175 151 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% DIVORCED MARRIED SINGLE Violation of Parole WIDOW(ER) New Crime Of all reincarcerated inmates within the first year of release from the 2006 Cohort, widowed offenders had the lowest rate of VOP while divorced and single offenders had about the same levels. Paul Heroux 53 Reincarceration in Philadelphia 2006 Cohort - Percent of Discharges Reincarcerated by Zip Code 70 92 75 107 104 110 190 169 144 191 177 214 192 181 306 306 200 278 305 346 348 348 438 389 517 418 428 621 543 493 799 703 80% 782 647 100% 60% 40% 20% Reincarcerated 1915 4 1911 9 1912 6 1911 4 1914 9 1913 5 1912 5 1915 1 1913 6 1911 1 1915 0 1914 7 1912 3 1913 0 1913 8 1914 2 1912 2 1913 9 1914 6 1914 4 1912 0 1910 0 1914 5 1914 1 1913 1 1914 8 1910 4 1912 4 1912 1 1913 3 1914 0 1913 4 1914 3 1913 2 0% Not Reincarcerated Looking at all reincarcerations from the 2006 discharge cohort, seen above are the highest rate and most frequently occurring zip codes associated with inmate reincarceration. Note that the above ZIP codes have the highest rate of reincarceration, however, what is not seen are the ZIP codes that do not have a high rate of reincarceration. As such, we see that almost all of these are above 40%, where as the normal rate of reincarceration within the first year is between 35-40%. 2006 Cohort - Percent of Discharges Reincarcerated by Zip Code 800 Seen to the left, are the raw counts of inmates who are reincarcerated by zip code. It is the same data as above but in a different chart format. 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 19 154 19 114 19 126 19 119 19 130 19 123 19 147 19 150 19 111 19 136 19 151 19 125 19 149 19 135 19 122 19 142 19 138 19 104 19 148 19 131 19 141 19 145 19 100 19 120 19 144 19 146 19 139 19 133 19 121 19 124 19 132 19 143 19 134 19 140 0 Reincarcerated Paul Heroux 54 Reincarceration in Philadelphia 2006 Cohort - VOP and Inmates' Admission Zip Code 100% 56 50 54 57 54 70 65 75 83 96 102 97 105 111 142 123 148 149 159 191 195 217 214 216 60% 231 246 251 309 316 317 362 431 453 470 80% 40% 20% Violation of Parole 1911 4 1915 4 1915 0 1912 6 1911 9 1914 7 1913 0 1912 3 1911 1 1913 6 1913 5 1915 1 1914 9 1912 5 1914 2 1912 2 1913 1 1913 8 1912 0 1914 1 1910 4 1910 0 1914 8 1914 4 1914 5 1913 9 1914 6 1912 4 1912 1 1914 3 1913 2 1913 3 1913 4 1914 0 0% New Crime Looking at all reincarcerations from the 2000 discharge cohort, above, of the zip codes that have the highest frequency of offender reincarceration, VOP is responsible for about 38% of inmates who return to the PPS. In general, VOP only accounts for about 30% of reincarceration. Reentry resources need to be allocated to the zip codes where the most reentry is occurring . Within those zip codes, efforts to reduce the occurrence of technical violations should be a top priority. Inmates who are incarcerated on a VOP consume considerable resources from the County and do so without committing a new crime. Paul Heroux 55 Reincarceration in Philadelphia 2006 Cohort - VOP and Sex 100% 75% 4,129 19,824 Female Male 50% 25% 0% Violation of Parole New Crime Above: Looking at all reincarcerations from the 2006 discharge cohort, there is no functional difference between males and females that violate parole. Below: Looking at all reincarcerations from the 2006 discharge cohort, excluding the VOPs, there is a difference between males and females who don’t violate parole (males commit slightly more new crimes). 2006 Cohort - Non-VOP and Reincarceration 100% 90% 80% 70% 2,669 12,116 Female Male 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Reincarcerated Paul Heroux 56 Not Reincarcerated Reincarceration in Philadelphia Paul Heroux 57 Reincarceration in Philadelphia WHO IS NOT REINCARCERATED? This chapter examines who has not been reincarcerated in the PPS. It is more difficult to determine who is going to be reincarcerated than who is not. Paul Heroux 58 Reincarceration in Philadelphia 2006 Cohort - Not Reincarcerated by Most Serious Charge Category 100% 80% 60% 217 4,724 437 102 6,188 20% 1,316 1,330 40% 0% ted ed Rel... elated nce R ence ela ons R Weap Viole l Viol Sex ua ed Relat rime Sex C Relat lation a l Vio r L eg elated r im e er ty C Pro p Othe R Dr ug Not Reincarcerated Within the first year of release, offenders incarcerated for “other legal violation”, which are usually, but not always, non-violent/marginal offenses, the occurrence of reincarceration is 20%. (See pg 60). 2006 Cohort - Not Reincarcerated by Age Category 100% 80% 60% 6 6 5 to 32 62 6 0 to 3 5 to 187 531 1,998 3 0 to 1,596 1,862 2 5 to 1,929 2,447 2,457 568 20% 1,053 40% 0% 7 5 to 7 0 to 5 5 to 5 0 to 4 5 to 4 0 to 2 0 to 1 5 to 79 74 69 64 59 54 49 44 39 34 29 24 19 Not Reincarcerated Within the first year of release, as offenders get older, and after 25-29 years old, the occurrence of reincarceration is less than 50%. Paul Heroux 59 Reincarceration in Philadelphia 2006 Cohort - Not Reincarcerated by Length of Stay in the PPS 100% 80% 60% 40% 845 309 49 da 100-1 224 1,027 50-9 9 531 1,566 0-49 808 9,475 20% 0% 500+ da ys ys ys 99 da 300-3 ys 99 da 400-4 99 da 200-2 ys ys 99 da 150-1 da ys days Not Reincarcerated Within the first year of release, there is no relationship between inmate length of stay and not being reincarcerated in the PPS. 2006 Cohort - Not Reincarcerated by Race 2,804 TE WHI OTH ER 48 A CAN AN IC HISP AFRI 1,638 10,136 ASIA N 108 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% ICAN MER Not Reincarcerated Within the first year of release, with the exception of Asians, there is no relationship between inmate race and not being reincarcerated in the PPS. Paul Heroux 60 Reincarceration in Philadelphia 2006 Cohort - Not Reincarcerated by Number of Career Admissions 10,473 3 3 to 2 5 to 1 9 to 1 6 to 1 3 to 1 0 to 7 to 9 4 to 6 1 to 3 2 8 to 1 2 2 to 6 5 44 114 331 997 2,818 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 36 30 27 24 21 18 15 12 Not Reincarcerated The above chart shows the number of career admissions by reincarceration within the first year of release. For individuals with 1-3 career admissions, the percent of individuals not reincarcerated is about 75%. For individuals with 4-6 admissions, the percent of inmates reincarcerated is about 40%. Consistent with other research findings (Clear, 2007; Kurlychek, 2006; Western, 2006; Travis, 2005; Petersilia, 2003) this charts indicates that increased incarceration is associated with facilitating a criminogenic cycle of institutionalization and difficulty with re-entry. Other analysis directed by the author while at the PPS found that marginal offenders have a lower rate of recidivism, are not violent, and have contributed to the PPS average daily population by about 600 inmates each year. This is particularly important in light of current population overcrowding. If marginal offenders are addressed via alternative sanctions (mental health courts, day reporting, probation or fines, to name a few), the average daily population would be about 600 inmates lower, the costs to the City could be 50-75% less per inmate, and for many offenders, alternative sanctions are more effective in reducing recidivism than is incarceration. The City’s need to invest in mental health courts, drug courts, day reporting and other alternatives to incarceration is immediate and should be addressed in the fY09 budget, otherwise its contribution to reincarceration and overcrowding will continue until the next budget cycle. Paul Heroux 61 Reincarceration in Philadelphia GENERAL CHARGE Other Legal Violation 2006: Data CHARGE DESCRIPTION VIOLATION OF JUDICIAL CODE Total 632 LOIT & PROWLING AT NIGHT TIME 4 CRIMINAL MISCHIEF 201 ACCIDENTS-DAMAGE ATTN VEH/PROP 3 POSSESSING INSTRUMENT OF CRIME 167 BAD CHECKS 3 ENDANGERING WELFARE OF CHILD 70 CRUELTY TO ANIMALS 3 3 3 69 FALSE ALARMS FUGITIVE FROM ANOTHER STATE 61 IMPERSONATING A PUBLIC SERVANT CRIMINAL TRESPASS 56 INSURANCE FRAUD 3 OBST HWY & OTHER PUB PASSAGE 42 POSSESSING INSTRUMENT OF CRIME 3 CORRUPTION OF MINORS 38 TRADEMARK COUNTERF-CONSP 3 FORGERY 34 COPYING; RECORDING DEVICES 2 RECKLESSLY ENDANGERING 27 CREDIT CARDS 2 SUMMARY VIO OF MV CODE 26 CRIMINAL TRESSPASS 2 TRADEMARK COUNTERF 16 FAILURE TO DISPERSE - ORDERED 2 15 FALSE EVIDENCE OF IDENTITY 2 RESISTING ARREST 15 FLIGHT TO AVOID PROSECUTION 2 ESCAPE 14 OBST ADMIN-LAW OR GOV FUNCTION 2 14 ADJUDICATED DELIQUENT FOR: 1 CAUSING OR RISKING CATASTROPHE 12 ALT OR OBL MARKS OF IDENTIF CONTRABAND VIOLATION PUBLIC WELFARE CODE 12 ALTERED/FRG/CTFT DOC & PLATES ATTEMPTED ARSON AND RELATED OF12 FENSES 12 CONTEMPT OF GENERAL ASSEMBLY 1 SCATTERING RUBBISH 10 CORRUPT ORGANIZATIONS 1 ACCIDENT INV DEATH/PERS INJURY 9 DEALING IN UNLAWFUL ACTIVITIES 1 HINDING APPREH OR PROSECUTION 9 DRIVING WHILE SUSP OR REVOKED 1 ACCIDENT-DEATH-NO LICEN 7 HOMICIDE BY VEHICLE 1 DEFAULT IN REQUIRED APPEARANCE 7 INCITING TO RIOT 1 HARASSMENT 7 LOITERING 1 INTERF W/CUSTODY OF CHILDREN 7 LOTTERIES 1 UNAUTH USE OF AUTO & VEHICLES 7 PERJURY 1 UNLAWFUL USE OF COMPUTER 7 PUBLIC DRUNKENNESS 1 ETHNIC INTIMIDATION 5 SECURING EXEC OF DOC BY DECEPT 1 INVOLUNTARY MANSLAUGHTER 5 FLEEING TO ELUDE POLICE OFF 4 TAMPERING WITH PUB REC OR INFO VIO UNEMPL COMPENSATIONS LAWS 1 1 ARSON AND RELATED OFFENSES DISORDERLY CONDUCT CRIMINAL CONSPIRACY PUBLIC ASSISTANCE ACT 1 1 1 Throughout this report, drug related charges, violence, related charges, sexual and sexual violence related charges and property related charges are describe. However, at times, we also see “other legal violation.” Seen above is what creates the ‘Other Legal Violation’ category. Paul Heroux 62 Reincarceration in Philadelphia NOTE FROM THE AUTHOR 70%? This report shows that reincarceration in the PPS is around 35% within the first year of release. In the 9 November 2007 report titled “Prison Population Report and Recommendations to The Mayor Elect of Philadelphia Michael A. Nutter” from Commissioner Leon King to then Mayor Elect, Michael Nutter, this author supplied information for that report. On page 39, it states that “Eventually, more than 70% of inmate discharges return to the PPS”, and then on page 41, figure 14 shows the number of inmate reincarcerations from the first year after release to the seventh year after release. Under the methods used, an inmate discharge might be a reincarceration for the same crime without even violating parole or committing a new crime as well as several other non-recidivism related reasons for reincarceration such as routine transfers, and reincarceration after posting bail and then being later sentenced on the same initial charge (this would be two incarcerations for one crime). The methods used to arrive at this “more than 70%” number do not represent a recidivism finding, or even exclusively a reincarceration for a new crime/and or VOP. As such that 70% figure is a meaningless and misleading figure to quote as a rate of recidivism for the Philadelphia Prison System, and any belief to the contrary is in error. In addition, this same ‘70% number’ was released as “a work in progress” on 14 April 2008 by the PPS. While this report only makes use of reincarceration at one year, and does so for accounting purposes as well as accuracy of data, best estimates at reincarceration for a new crime or a violation of parole at 7 years places the actual figure between 49% and 59%. As such this particular number (70% or 72%)that has been cited many times by several parties should not be taken as a true or accurate recidivism or reincarceration number. The City of Philadelphia and/or the Philadelphia Prison System does not have a recidivism rate that is anywhere near 70%. Paul Heroux 63 Reincarceration in Philadelphia WORKS CITED Paul Heroux 64 Reincarceration in Philadelphia WORKS CITED: • • • • • • • • • • • Paul Heroux Barol, Curt (2001) Criminal Behavior Clear, Todd (2007) Imprisoning Communities Goldkamp, John (2006) Report to the City of Philadelphia King, Leon, (2007) Prison Population Report and Recommendations to The Mayor Elect of Philadelphia Michael A. Nutter Megan Kurlychek (2006) Criminology and Public Policy Vol. 5 No. 3 MacKenzie, Doris (2006) What Works In Corrections Pager, Devah (2007) Marked: Race, Crime, and Finding Work in an Era of Mass Incarceration Petersilia, Joan (2003) When Prisoners Come Home Sherman, Lawrence, et al (2002) Evidence-Based Crime Prevention Travis, Jeremy (2005) But They All Come Back Western, Bruce (2006) Punishment and Inequality in America 65 Reincarceration in Philadelphia IN COMPLETEING THIS REPORT SPECIAL THANKS MUST BE GIVEN TO: CHERYL MORRISON WITHOUT HER HELP, THIS PROJECT AND MANY OTHERS WOULD NOT HAVE BEEN POSSIBLE. SHE IS AN EXCELLENT TEAMMATE. Paul Heroux 66 Reincarceration in Philadelphia And special thanks to: Reed Domer-Shank, MS Bruce Herdman, PhD Rebecca Katz, MPP Leon A. King Esq. Kate Roach, MS, MSW For their help in reviewing this document & Lt Ernie Webb For his help in understanding release data And to Commissioner Louis Giorla for making sure that this project was supported in its completion, and his patience in the completion of this project. Paul Heroux 67 Reincarceration in Philadelphia 68