U.S. Department of Justice
Office of Justice Programs
Bureau of Justice Statistics

April 2014	

Special Report

ncj 244205

Recidivism of Prisoners Released in 30 States
in 2005: Patterns from 2005 to 2010
Matthew R. Durose, Alexia D. Cooper, Ph.D., and Howard N. Snyder, Ph.D., BJS Statisticians

O

verall, 67.8% of the 404,638 state
prisoners released in 2005 in 30 states
were arrested within 3 years of release,
and 76.6% were arrested within 5 years of
release (figure 1). Among prisoners released in
2005 in 23 states with available data on inmates
returned to prison, 49.7% had either a parole
or probation violation or an arrest for a new
offense within 3 years that led to imprisonment,
and 55.1% had a parole or probation violation
or an arrest that led to imprisonment within
5 years.
While prior Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS)
prisoner recidivism reports tracked inmates
for 3 years following release, this report used
a 5-year follow-up period. The longer window
provides supplementary information for
policymakers and practitioners on the officially
recognized criminal behavior of released
prisoners. While 20.5% of released prisoners
not arrested within 2 years of release were
arrested in the third year, the percentage fell to
13.3% among those who had not been arrested
within 4 years. The longer recidivism period
also provides a more complete assessment of
the number and types of crimes committed
by released persons in the years following
their release.

Figure 1
Recidivism of prisoners released in 30 states in 2005, by time from
release to first arrest that led to recidivating event
Percent who recidivated
100
80

Arresta

60

Return to prisonb

40

Convictionc

20
0

0

6

12

18

24

30

36

42

48

54

60

Time from release to first arrest (in months)
Note: Prisoners were tracked for 5 years following release in 30 states. Some states were excluded
from the specific measures of recidivism. See Methodology.
aBased on time from release to first arrest among inmates released in 30 states.
bBased on time from release to first arrest that led to a prison sentence or first prison admission
for a technical violation without a new sentence among inmates released in 23 states.
cBased on time from release to first arrest that led to a conviction among inmates released in 29
states.
Source: Bureau of Justice Statistics, Recidivism of State Prisoners Released in 2005 data collection.

HIGHLIGHTS
Among state prisoners released in 30 states in 2005—
„„

About two-thirds (67.8%) of released prisoners were
arrested for a new crime within 3 years, and three-quarters
(76.6%) were arrested within 5 years.

„„

Within 5 years of release, 82.1% of property offenders
were arrested for a new crime, compared to 76.9% of drug
offenders, 73.6% of public order offenders, and 71.3% of
violent offenders.

„„

More than a third (36.8%) of all prisoners who were arrested
within 5 years of release were arrested within the first
6 months after release, with more than half (56.7%) arrested
by the end of the first year.

„„

Two in five (42.3%) released prisoners were either not
arrested or arrested once in the 5 years after their release.

„„

A sixth (16.1%) of released prisoners were responsible for
almost half (48.4%) of the nearly 1.2 million arrests that
occurred in the 5-year follow-up period.

„„

An estimated 10.9% of released prisoners were arrested in
a state other than the one that released them during the
5-year follow-up period.

„„

Within 5 years of release, 84.1% of inmates who were age 24
or younger at release were arrested, compared to 78.6% of
inmates ages 25 to 39 and 69.2% of those age 40 or older.

BJS

Factors contributing to differences with prior BJS studies
Policymakers, practitioners, researchers, and the general
public may be interested in understanding how the 2005
prisoner recidivism rates in this report compare with those in
the previous BJS recidivism study that measured prisoners
released in 1994. While both the 1994 and 2005 studies were
based on systematic samples of persons released from state
prisons, direct comparisons between the published recidivism
statistics should not be made.

Adjustments for some differences in the 1994
and 2005 prison populations are possible
One reason for not directly comparing the 1994 and 2005
recidivism estimates relates to differences in the attributes
of the prisoners included in the two samples. The number of
states contributing released prisoners to the study increased
from 15 in 1994 to 30 in 2005. To control for this difference,
BJS conducted analyses that limited the comparison to the
post-release arrest rates among the inmates released in the
12 states (California, Florida, Maryland, Michigan, Minnesota,
New Jersey, New York, North Carolina, Ohio, Oregon, Texas,
and Virginia) that participated in both studies. Among the
inmates released in these 12 states, an estimated 66.9% of
the 249,657 inmates released in 1994 were arrested for a
new crime within 3 years, compared to an estimated 69.3%
of the 286,829 inmates released in 2005—a 2.4 percentage
point difference.
Another difference between the two studies involved the
demographic and offending characteristics of prisoners
released from the state prisons, attributes known to be related
to recidivism. For example, the proportion of inmates who
were age 40 or older at release increased from 17.2% in the
1994 sample to 32.1% in the 2005 sample. In addition, the
proportion who were in prison for a violent offense increased
from 22.4% in the 1994 sample to 27.4% in the 2005 sample
(table 1).

Table 1
Characteristics of prisoners released in 12 states in 1994
and 2005
Characteristic
All released prisoners
Sex
Male
Female
Race/Hispanic origin
Whitea
Black/African Americana
Hispanic/Latino
Othera,b
Age at release
24 or younger
25–29
30–34
35–39
40 or older
Most serious commitment offense
Violent
Property
Drug
Public orderc
Number of released prisoners

1994
100%

2005
100%

91.2%
8.8

89.9%
10.1

32.2%
46.2
20.9
0.7

35.4%
40.5
22.4
1.8

20.6%
22.7
23.0
16.6
17.2

16.9%
18.9
16.0
16.1
32.1

22.4%
33.2
33.0
11.4

27.4%
29.1
31.4
12.1

249,657

286,829

Note: Estimates based on a sample of 29,387 prisoners released in 1994 and a
sample of 34,649 prisoners released in 2005 in the 12 states that participated
in both studies (California, Florida, Maryland, Michigan, Minnesota, New
Jersey, New York, North Carolina, Ohio, Oregon, Texas, and Virginia). Data on
the sex of prisoners released in 1994 were known for 100% of cases, race and
Hispanic origin for 99.9%, and age at release for nearly 100%. Data on the
sex of prisoners released in 2005 were known for 100% of cases, race and
Hispanic origin for 99.8%, and age at release for 100%. See appendix table 1
for standard errors.
aExcludes persons of Hispanic or Latino origin.
bIncludes persons identified as American Indian or Alaska Native; Asian,
Native Hawaiian, or other Pacific Islander; and persons of other races.
cIncludes cases in which the prisoner’s most serious offense was unspecified.
Source: Bureau of Justice Statistics, Recidivism of State Prisoners Released in
1994 and 2005 data collections.

Continued on next page.

Recidivism of Prisoners Released in 30 states in 2005: Patterns from 2005 to 2010 | April 2014

2

Factors contributing to differences with prior BJS studies (continued)
BJS standardized the demographic (i.e., sex, race, Hispanic
origin, and age) and commitment offense distribution of the
2005 cohort to the distribution of the 1994 cohort to control
for the effects these factors had on the overall recidivism
estimates. (See Methodology for more information.) These
calculations produced the 3-year arrest rate of prisoners
released in 2005 that would have been observed if the 2005
release cohort had the characteristics of the 1994 cohort. After
adjusting for these compositional differences, the estimated
percentage of the 2005 released prisoners who were arrested
within 3 years rose to 71.6%, a recidivism rate 4.7% greater
than the 1994 estimate (66.9%) (table 2). However, these
analyses only partially address the differences between the
1994 and 2005 studies.

Additional death records on released prisoners
leads to increases in recidivism rates
A critical difference between the 1994 and 2005 studies was
the use of the Social Security Administration’s public Death
Master File (DMF) in the 2005 study to identify individuals
who died during the follow-up period. (See Methodology for
more information.) These individuals should be removed from
the analysis because they artificially reduce the calculated
recidivism rates. The 1994 study limited the identification of
released prisoners who died to those who had an indication
of death on their criminal history record (i.e., rap sheet). The
2005 study supplemented the death information obtained
from the FBI’s Interstate Identification Index (III) with the
DMF data. Based on both sources of information, 1,595 of the
70,878 inmates sampled for the 2005 study had died during
the 5-year follow-up period. Less than 10% of those deaths
were captured in the fingerprint verified death information
that criminal justice agencies submitted to the FBI’s III system.
If the DMF data had not been used in the 2005 study and
the rap sheets of these individuals had been included in the
analyses, the estimated 5-year recidivism rate would have
been about one-half of one percent lower.

Effects of the criminal history record
improvements on recidivism research are
difficult to quantify
Direct comparisons between the published recidivism rates
from the 1994 and the new 2005 study are also difficult due
to the completeness of the criminal history records available
to BJS at the time of the data collections. Both studies were
based on fingerprint-verified automated rap sheets stored in
the FBI and the state repositories. While both studies relied
on records within the FBI’s III system for information on the
arrests and prosecutions that occurred outside of the states that

Table 2
Population-adjusted percent of prisoners arrested for a
new crime within 3 years following release in 12 states in
1994 and 2005, by demographic characteristics and most
serious commitment offense
Characteristic
All released prisoners
Sex
Male
Female
Race/Hispanic origin
Whiteb
Black/African Americanb
Hispanic/Latino
Otherb ,c
Age at release
24 or younger
25–29
30–34
35–39
40 or older
Most serious commitment offense
Violent
Property
Drug
Public orderd
Number of released prisoners

1994
66.9%

2005a
71.6%**

67.8%
57.2

72.5%**
62.9**

61.7%
71.9
64.6
53.6

68.8%**
74.0**
70.7**
72.6**

74.7%
69.8
68.3
66.3
52.4

78.2%**
73.4**
70.3
71.8**
62.9**

60.9%
73.2
66.3
62.2
249,658

65.6%**
77.6**
71.4**
66.9**
286,011

Note: Estimates based on a sample of 29,387 prisoners released in 1994 and a
sample of 34,649 prisoners released in 2005 in the 12 states that participated
in both studies. See appendix table 2 for standard errors.
**Difference between the estimate on the 1994 cohort and the estimate on
the standardized 2005 cohort was statistically significant at or above the 95%
confidence interval.
aEstimates of inmates released in 2005 have been standardized to the
distribution of inmates released in 1994 by sex, race, Hispanic origin, age at
release, and most serious commitment offense. The unadjusted estimate for
the 2005 cohort was 69.3%.
bExcludes persons of Hispanic or Latino origin.
cIncludes persons identified as American Indian or Alaska Native; Asian,
Native Hawaiian, or other Pacific Islander; and persons of other races.
dIncludes cases in which the prisoner’s most serious offense was unspecified.
Source: Bureau of Justice Statistics, Recidivism of State Prisoners Released in
1994 and 2005 data collections.

released the inmates, the 2005 study used new data collection
capabilities to directly access the criminal history record systems
of all 50 states and obtain more comprehensive out-of-state
information than what was available for the 1994 study. (See
Methodology for more information.) In addition, BJS was unable
to obtain any out-of-state criminal history information on
the prisoners released in one state in the 1994 study due to a
nondisclosure agreement.

Recidivism of Prisoners Released in 30 states in 2005: Patterns from 2005 to 2010 | April 2014

Continued on next page.

3

Factors contributing to differences with prior BJS studies (continued)
The improved reporting of arrests and prosecutions
maintained by the FBI and state repositories in the decade
between the two studies also resulted in more complete
documentation of the official criminal records of prisoners
released in 2005. The quality of rap sheets has improved since
the mid-1990s due to efforts funded by individual states and
by BJS’s National Criminal History Improvement Program
(NCHIP), which awarded more than $500 million over this
period to states for criminal history record improvements. As a
result, many existing paper arrest records were automated and
stored within a computerized criminal history system. Also,
the growth in the use of automated fingerprint technology
(e.g., livescan) reduced the proportion of illegible fingerprint
images delivered to the repositories, resulting in more arrests
and court adjudications being recorded on the rap sheets.
In addition, while local law enforcement agencies historically
limited their criminal history repository submissions to arrests
for felonies and serious misdemeanors, the reporting of less
serious misdemeanors or minor infractions expanded during
this time, although it is unknown whether this increase is due
to changes in reporting practices or changes in the criminal
behaviors of the released prisoners. In general, violent crimes
are considered to be more serious than public order offenses.
Among the prisoners who were arrested for a new crime
within 3 years, public order offenses made up 36.0% of the
first post-release arrests for the 2005 cohort, compared to
22.9% of the first post-release arrests for the 1994 cohort

(table 3). Violent offenses accounted for 14.8% of the first
post-release arrests for the 2005 cohort, compared to 18.8% of
the first post-release arrests for the 1994 cohort.*
*These estimates were based on prisoners released in the 11 states
in both studies that included charge descriptions in their criminal
history records.

Table 3
First arrest charge of prisoners arrested for a new crime
within 3 years following release in 11 states in 1994
and 2005
Most serious arrest charge
All released prisoners
Violent
Property
Drug
Public order*
Estimated number of prisoners with a
post-release arrest

1994
100%
18.8%
28.8
29.5
22.9

2005
100%
14.8%
23.6
25.6
36.0

161,000

191,000

Note: Estimates based on a sample of 27,788 prisoners released in 1994 and a
sample of 32,155 prisoners released in 2005 in the 11 states that participated
in both studies and included charge descriptions in their arrest records.
Number of arrests was rounded to the nearest 1,000. First arrest may include
multiple charges; the most serious charge is reported in this table. See
appendix table 3 for standard errors.
*Includes cases in which the prisoner’s most serious offense was unspecified.
Source: Bureau of Justice Statistics, Recidivism of State Prisoners Released in
1994 and 2005 data collections.

Recidivism of Prisoners Released in 30 states in 2005: Patterns from 2005 to 2010 | April 2014

Continued on next page.

4

Factors contributing to differences with prior BJS studies (continued)
As a result of the improvements to the nation’s criminal history
records, the rap sheets of prisoners released in 2005 likely
captured more complete offending histories than the rap
sheets used in the 1994 study. These improvements would
have resulted in higher observed recidivism rates in 2005
than in 1994, even if the two samples had the same true
recidivism rates.
BJS conducted a test of this assumption by comparing the
recidivism rates of the 1994 and 2005 samples using only new
arrests for a violent offense. The logic behind this test was
that, while the rap sheets for the 2005 cohort may contain
more arrests overall and more arrests for minor offenses,
arrests for violent offenses should be well represented in both
sets of rap sheets. Using this more serious indictor of criminal
behavior and controlling for cohort differences in offender
demographics and most serious commitment offense, the
percentage of released prisoners who were arrested for a
violent crime within 3 years following release did not differ
significantly between the 1994 (21.3%) and 2005 (21.8%)
cohorts (table 4).
The stability in the 1994 and 2005 recidivism rates when
recidivism is measured as a new arrest for a violent crime and
the difference observed when recidivism is measured as a
new offense for any offense raises questions about the overall
consistency of rap sheet content between the 1994 and 2005
studies. More research is required to better understand the
effects of rap sheet improvements on observed recidivism
rates. However, given the limited empirical data currently
available on the state-level changes in rap sheet content since
the mid-1990s, the effects of rap sheet improvements on the
observed recidivism rates cannot be quantified, and statistical
adjustments for their effects cannot be made. Therefore, it
is not advisable to compare the 2005 recidivism rates in this
report with those found in earlier BJS reports until we have a
deeper understanding of the changes in rap sheet content.

Table 4
Population-adjusted percent of prisoners arrested
for a violent crime within 3 years following release
in 11 states in 1994 and 2005, by demographic
characteristics and most serious commitment offense
Characteristic
All released prisoners
Sex
Male
Female
Race/Hispanic origin
Whiteb
Black/African Americanb
Hispanic/Latino
Otherb,c
Age at release
24 or younger
25–29
30–34
35–39
40 or older
Most serious commitment offense
Violent
Property
Drug
Public orderd
Number of released prisoners

1994
21.3%

2005a
21.8%

22.4%
10.2

22.7%
13.1**

16.4%
26.2
18.7
19.0

19.3%**
25.3
18.5
18.5

28.9%
23.9
21.2
17.3
12.7

28.6%
24.8
20.1
19.5
14.3

27.0%
21.4
18.4
17.9

24.8%**
22.2
19.5
21.4**

241,448

276,218

Note: Estimates based on a sample of 27,788 prisoners released in 1994
and a sample of 32,155 prisoners released in 2005 in the 11 states that
participated in both studies and included charge descriptions in their
arrest records. See appendix table 4 for standard errors.
**Difference between the estimate on the 1994 cohort and the estimate
on the standardized 2005 cohort was statistically significant at or above
the 95% confidence interval.
aEstimates of inmates released in 2005 have been standardized to the
distribution of inmates released in 1994 by sex, race, Hispanic origin, age at
release, and most serious commitment offense. The unadjusted estimate
for the 2005 cohort was 20.1%.
bExcludes persons of Hispanic or Latino origin.
cIncludes persons identified as American Indian or Alaska Native; Asian,
Native Hawaiian, or other Pacific Islander; and persons of other races.
dIncludes cases in which the prisoner’s most serious offense was unspecified.
Source: Bureau of Justice Statistics, Recidivism of State Prisoners Released
in 1994 and 2005 data collections.

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5

Criminal history and prison records were used to
document recidivism patterns
This study estimates the recidivism patterns of 404,638
persons released in 2005 from state prisons in 30 states. In
2005, these states held 76% of the U.S. population and were
responsible for 77% of the prisoners released from U.S.
prisons (not shown). A representative sample of inmates
released in 2005 was developed for each of the 30 states
using data reported by state departments of corrections to
BJS’s National Corrections Reporting Program (NCRP),
yielding a final sample of 68,597 persons. (For a complete
description of the sampling and weighting procedures, see
Methodology.) Using information contained in state and
federal criminal history records (i.e., rap sheets) and the
records of state departments of corrections, this report
details the arrest, adjudication, conviction, and incarceration
experiences of these former inmates within and outside of
the state that released them for a 5-year period following
their release from prison.
This research has attempted to minimize the effect on
recidivism statistics posed by state variations in criminal
history reporting policies, coding practices, and coverage.
The analysis excluded arrest events in the rap sheets that
were not commonly recorded by all states (e.g., arrests for
many types of traffic offenses). The analysis also excluded
sections of the rap sheets that recorded the issuance of a
warrant as an arrest event when no arrest actually occurred.
Some variations in the content of rap sheets remained and
cannot be remediated, such as the nature of the charging
decision. For example, when an inmate on parole is arrested
for committing a burglary, some local law enforcement
agencies coded the arrest offense as a parole violation, some
coded it as a burglary, and others coded both the burglary
and the parole violation. Given that this is often a local
coding decision, it is difficult to discern from the contents
of the rap sheets which charging approach was employed at
each arrest.
Along with these coding variations, it is commonly
assumed that the information derived from criminal history
repositories understates the criminal histories of offenders,
especially information on actions that occurred over 20 years
ago. While it cannot be quantified at this time, the common
perception is that, through targeted funding and the efforts
of criminal justice practitioners across the country, the
quality and completeness of rap sheets has improved so that
they provide better assessments of recidivism patterns.

Among the 404,638 prisoners released in 30 states in
2005, 31.8% were in prison for a drug offense, 29.8% for a
property offense, 25.7% for a violent offense, and 12.7% for
a public order offense (table 5). Nearly 9 in 10 (89.3%) of
released prisoners were male. More than a third (36.9%)
of these persons were under age 30 at release, and about
a third (31.5%) were age 40 or older. The proportions
of non-Hispanic black (40.1%) and non-Hispanic white
(39.9%) prisoners were similar. An estimated 25.7% of the
released prisoners had 4 or fewer prior arrests, while 43.2%
had 10 or more. Half of the released prisoners had 3 or more
prior convictions.
Table 5
Characteristics of prisoners released in 30 states in 2005
Characteristic
All released prisoners
Sex
Male
Female
Race/Hispanic origin
Whitea
Black/African Americana
Hispanic/Latino
Othera,b
Age at release
24 or younger
25–29
30–34
35–39
40 or older
Most serious commitment offense
Violent
Property
Drug
Public orderc
Number of prior arrests per released prisonerd
2 or fewer
3–4
5–9
10 or more
Mean number
Median number
Number of prior convictions per released prisonerd
Mean number
Median number
Number of released prisoners

Percent
100%
89.3%
10.7
39.9%
40.1
17.7
2.4
17.6%
19.3
15.9
15.7
31.5
25.7%
29.8
31.8
12.7
11.5%
14.2
31.1
43.2
10.6
7.8
4.9
3.1
404,638

Note: Data on the prisoner’s sex were known for 100% of cases, race and Hispanic
origin for nearly 100%, and age at release for 100%. See appendix table 5 for
standard errors.
aExcludes persons of Hispanic or Latino origin.
bIncludes persons identified as American Indian or Alaska Native; Asian, Native
Hawaiian, or other Pacific Islander; and persons of other races.
cIncludes 0.8% of cases in which the prisoner’s most serious offense was
unspecified.
dIncludes arrest and conviction that resulted in the imprisonment.
Source: Bureau of Justice Statistics, Recidivism of State Prisoners Released in 2005
data collection.

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6

1 in 10 state prisoners had an out-of-state arrest
within 5 years of release
An estimated 24.7% of the released prisoners had a prior
arrest in a state other than the one that released them
(table 6). About 1 in 10 (10.9%) released prisoners were
arrested at least once outside the state that released them
during the 5-year follow-up period. These statistics show
the limitations of recidivism studies that only have access to
in-state criminal history information.
3 in 4 state prisoners were arrested within 5 years of
release
Within 1 year after their release from state prison, 43.4%
of prisoners had been arrested either in or outside of the
state that released them. This percentage grew each year,
increasing to 59.5% by the end of the second year, 67.8% by
the end of the third year, and 76.6% by the end of the 5-year
follow-up period.
Another way to view these recidivism statistics is to consider
how quickly those who recidivated actually did so. More
than a third (36.8%) of all released prisoners who were
arrested within 5 years of release were arrested within the
first 6 months, with more than half (56.7%) arrested by the
end of the first year (not shown).
The longer released prisoners went without being arrested,
the less likely they were to be arrested within the 5-year
period. For example, compared to the arrest rate of 43.4%
in the first year after release, 28.5% of persons not arrested
in the first year were arrested for the first time in the second
year following their release from prison (figure 2). Similarly,
for those not arrested by the end of the second year, 20.5%
were arrested by the end of the third year, with the arrest rate
falling to 16.1% in the fourth year. Finally, 13.3% of released
prisoners who went 4 years without an arrest were arrested
in the fifth year.
Table 6
Out-of-state arrests of prisoners released in 30 states in 2005
Out-of-state arrests
Prior to release
1 or more
1–4
5–9
10 or more
Post-release
1 or more
1–4
5–9
10 or more

Percent
24.7%
17.5
4.3
2.9
10.9%
9.6
1.1
0.2

Note: Prisoners were tracked for 5 years following release. Arrested out-of-state
includes arrests that occurred in states other than the one that released the
prisoner in 2005. See appendix table 6 for standard errors.
Source: Bureau of Justice Statistics, Recidivism of State Prisoners Released in 2005
data collection.

The 404,638 persons released in 2005 were arrested an
estimated 1,173,000 times in the 5 years after release (table 7).
While some of them had a large number of arrests in the followup period (maximum of 81), most did not. Among all released
prisoners, the average number of arrests in the 5-year period
was 2.9, while the median number of arrests was 1.5. About
2 in 5 (42.3%) of all releasees were arrested no more than once
in the 5-year period, and more than half (57.6%) had fewer
than 3 arrests in the 5 years following their release. Despite
this, among released prisoners who were arrested at least once
Figure 2
Percent of prisoners arrested during the year who had not
been arrested since release in 30 states in 2005
Percent arrested
50
40

43.4

30
28.5
20

20.5
16.1

10
0

Year 1

Year 2

Year 3
Year after release

Year 4

13.3

Year 5

Note: The denominators for the annual rates were 404,638 for year 1; 229,035
for year 2; 163,679 for year 3; 130,128 for year 4; and 109,186 for year 5. The
numerators include persons arrested in the year who had not been arrested since
release. See appendix table 7 for standard errors.
Source: Bureau of Justice Statistics, Recidivism of State Prisoners Released in 2005
data collection.

Table 7
Post-release arrests of prisoners released in 30 states in 2005
Post-release arrests
All released prisoners
None
1
2
3
4
5
6 or more

Percent
100%
23.4
18.9
15.3
11.5
8.5
6.4
16.1

Estimated number of post-release arrests
Mean number per released prisoner
Median number per released prisoner
Number of released prisoners

1,173,000
2.9
1.5
404,638

Note: Prisoners were tracked for 5 years following release. Number of post-release
arrests was rounded to the nearest 1,000. See appendix table 8 for standard errors.
Source: Bureau of Justice Statistics, Recidivism of State Prisoners Released in 2005
data collection. Source: Bureau of Justice Statistics, Recidivism of State Prisoners
Released in 2005 data collection.

Recidivism of Prisoners Released in 30 states in 2005: Patterns from 2005 to 2010 | April 2014

7

during the 5-year follow-up period, three-quarters (75.4%) were
arrested again during the 5-year period (not shown). About a
sixth (16.1%) of released prisoners were responsible for about
half (48.4%) of the 1,173,000 arrests of released prisoners that
occurred in the 5-year follow-up period.
Prisoners released after serving time for a property
offense were the most likely to be arrested
Within 5 years of release, 82.1% of prisoners who had been
committed for a property offense had been arrested for a
new offense, followed by 76.9% of those committed for a
drug offense (figure 3 and table 8). Offenders sentenced for
a violent (71.3%) or public order offense (73.6%) were the
least likely to be arrested after release.
This general pattern of recidivism was maintained across the
5-year follow-up period. A year after release from prison, the
recidivism rate of prisoners sentenced for a property offense
(50.3 %) was higher than the rates for drug (42.3%), public
order (40.1%), and violent (38.4%) offenders. Among violent
offenders, the annual recidivism rates of prisoners sentenced
for homicide or sexual assault were lower than those
sentenced for assault or robbery across the 5-year period.
Among property offenders, inmates committed for larceny or
motor vehicle theft had higher annual recidivism rates than
those committed for fraud or forgery across the 5-year period.

Figure 3
Recidivism of prisoners released in 30 states in 2005, by most
serious commitment offense and time from release to first
arrest
Percent arrested
100

Drug

Property

Public order*
80
60
Violent
40
20
0

0

6

12
18
24
30
36
42
48
Time from release to first arrest (in months)

54

60

Note: Prisoners were tracked for 5 years following release.
*Includes 0.8% of cases in which the prisoner’s most serious offense was unspecified.
Source: Bureau of Justice Statistics, Recidivism of State Prisoners Released in 2005
data collection.

Table 8
Recidivism of prisoners released in 30 states in 2005, by most serious commitment offense and time from release to first arrest
Most serious commitment offense
All released prisoners
Violent
Homicidea
Murder
Nonnegligent manslaughter
Negligent manslaughter
Rape/sexual assault
Robbery
Assault
Other
Property
Burglary
Larceny/motor vehicle theft
Fraud/forgery
Other
Drug
Possession
Trafficking
Other
Public order
Weapons
Driving under the influence
Otherb

6 months
28.2%
24.9%
12.5
10.1
17.3
13.2
20.8
25.8
27.9
28.7
33.6%
31.0
39.3
27.7
33.2
26.9%
28.7
26.9
25.3
25.6%
35.3
11.9
27.8

Cumulative percent of released prisoners arrested within—
1 year
2 years
3 years
4 years
43.4%
59.5%
67.8%
73.0%
38.4%
53.8%
61.6%
67.2%
21.5
33.9
41.5
47.0
18.8
30.4
37.8
43.6
27.7
39.4
46.0
51.5
21.9
35.5
43.7
48.8
30.9
43.7
50.9
56.0
41.0
58.6
66.9
72.8
42.6
58.9
67.1
72.9
43.4
56.6
63.0
66.9
50.3%
66.7%
74.5%
79.1%
48.7
65.8
73.9
78.9
56.2
70.8
77.6
81.6
42.2
60.0
68.6
73.2
49.5
66.6
75.5
80.9
42.3%
59.1%
67.9%
73.3%
44.5
60.7
69.6
75.2
41.5
58.0
66.6
71.9
41.4
59.3
68.3
73.6
40.1%
55.6%
64.7%
69.9%
49.1
65.1
73.1
76.9
22.1
37.2
48.0
54.9
44.9
60.4
69.2
74.1

5 years
76.6%
71.3%
51.2
47.9
55.7
53.0
60.1
77.0
77.1
70.4
82.1%
81.8
84.1
77.0
83.6
76.9%
78.3
75.4
78.1
73.6%
79.5
59.9
77.9

Note: Prisoners were tracked for 5 years following release. Inmates could have been in prison for more than one offense; the most serious one is reported in this table.
See appendix table 9 for standard errors.
aIncludes cases in which the type of homicide was unspecified, not shown separately.
bIncludes 0.8% of cases in which the prisoner’s most serious offense was unspecified.
Source: Bureau of Justice Statistics, Recidivism of State Prisoners Released in 2005 data collection.

Recidivism of Prisoners Released in 30 states in 2005: Patterns from 2005 to 2010 | April 2014

8

Within the first 5 years of release from state prison in 2005,
an estimated 28.6% of inmates were arrested for a violent
offense (table 9). Among all released inmates, an estimated
1.7% were arrested for rape or sexual assault, and 23.0% were
arrested for assault. During the 5-year follow-up period,
the majority (58.0%) of released prisoners were arrested
for a public order offense. About 1 in 4 (25.3%) released
prisoners were arrested for a probation or parole violation.
An estimated 39.9% were arrested for some other public
order offense, including failure to appear and obstruction
of justice, which in some jurisdictions may be the legal
response to probation or parole violations. Other public
order offenses include drunkenness, disorderly conduct,
liquor law violation, or a family-related offense.
Compared to inmates incarcerated for a property (28.5%),
drug (24.8%), or public order offense (29.2%), a higher
percentage of inmates incarcerated for a violent offense were
arrested for another violent crime (33.1%) during the 5-year
period (table 10). A higher percentage of released property
offenders were arrested for a property crime (54.0%)
than violent, drug, or public order offenders. A higher
percentage of released drug offenders were arrested for a
drug crime (51.2%) than violent, property, or public order
offenders. While these statistics suggest that there was some
specialization in the offending behaviors of released inmates,
the recidivism patterns also show that released inmates were
involved in a wide range of law-violating behaviors.
During the 5-year period, inmates released for a drug offense
were less likely than property and public order inmates to
be arrested during the 5-year period for a violent offense. In
addition, inmates released for a property offense were more
likely than violent and public order inmates to be arrested
for a drug offense at some point during the 5-year period.

Table 9
Recidivism of prisoners released in 30 states in 2005, by type
of post-release arrest charge
Post-release arrest charge
Any offense
Violent
Homicide
Rape/sexual assault
Robbery
Assault
Other
Property
Burglary
Larceny/motor vehicle theft
Fraud/forgery
Other
Drug
Possession
Trafficking
Other
Public order
Weapons
Driving under the influence
Probation/parole violation
Other*

Percent of released prisoners
arrested within 5 years of release
76.6%
28.6%
0.9
1.7
5.5
23.0
4.0
38.4%
10.1
21.3
11.9
19.2
38.8%
26.8
13.1
19.9
58.0%
9.1
9.3
25.3
39.9

Note: Prisoners were tracked for 5 years following release. Detail may not sum
to total because a person may be arrested more than once and each arrest may
involve more than one charge. When information on the arrest charge was
missing in the criminal history records, the court disposition data were used to
describe the charge. See appendix table 10 for standard errors.
*Includes 0.8% of cases in which the prisoner’s most serious offense was
unspecified.
Source: Bureau of Justice Statistics, Recidivism of State Prisoners Released in 2005
data collection.

Table 10
Recidivism of prisoners released in 30 states in 2005, by type of post-release arrest charge and most serious commitment
offense
Most serious commitment offense
All released prisoners
Violent
Property
Drug
Public order*

Any offense
76.6%
71.3
82.1
76.9
73.6

Percent of released prisoners arrested within 5 years for—
Violent offense
Property offense
Drug offense
28.6%
38.4%
38.8%
33.1
29.7
28.2
28.5
54.0
38.5
24.8
33.1
51.2
29.2
32.7
30.0

Public order offense*
58.0%
55.3
61.9
56.1
59.6

Note: Prisoners were tracked for 5 years following release. Inmates could have been in prison for more than one offense; the most serious one is reported in this table.
The numerator for each percent is the number of persons arrested for a charge during the 5-year follow-up period, and the denominator is the number released for each
type of commitment offense. Detail may not sum to total because a person may be arrested more than once and each arrest may involve more than one charge. When
information on the arrest charge was missing in the criminal history records, the court disposition data were used to describe the charge. See appendix table 11 for
standard errors.
*Includes 0.8% of cases in which the prisoner’s most serious offense was unspecified.
Source: Bureau of Justice Statistics, Recidivism of State Prisoners Released in 2005 data collection.

Recidivism of Prisoners Released in 30 states in 2005: Patterns from 2005 to 2010 | April 2014

9

Inmate recidivism increased with criminal history
In this study, an inmate’s prior criminal history was
measured by the number of arrests found on their criminal
history records prior to their date of release. A year after
release from prison, about a quarter (26.4%) of released
inmates with 4 or fewer arrests in their prior criminal
record had been arrested, compared to over half (56.1%)
of released inmates who had 10 or more prior arrests
(figure 4 and table 11).
While recidivism rates increased through the fifth year for
both released inmates with 4 or fewer prior arrests and
those with 10 or more prior arrests, both groups consistently
differed about 30% by the end of the first year. This general
pattern remained through the next 4 years. For example,
60.8% of released inmates with 4 or fewer arrests in their
prior criminal history had been arrested by the end of the
fifth year, compared to 86.5% of released inmates who had
10 or more prior arrests. This finding suggests that the effect
of criminal history on recidivism is observable within a year
after release and continues into the future.
The negative effect of criminal history on recidivism held
across the inmate’s most serious incarceration offense
category. Inmates incarcerated for a violent offense who had
4 or fewer arrests in their prior criminal history were less
likely to be arrested within 5 years (56.3%) than those with
10 or more prior arrests (85.6%) (table 11). This disparity

was also observed among violent offenders arrested within a
year of release from prison, as 23.8% of inmates incarcerated
for a violent offense were arrested within a year of release,
compared to 55.4% of those with 10 or more prior arrests.
Figure 4
Recidivism of prisoners released in 30 states in 2005, by prior
arrest history and time from release to first arrest
Percent arrested
100
10 or more prior arrests
80
5–9 prior arrests
60
4 or fewer prior arrests
40
20
0

0

6

12
18
24
30
36
42
48
Time from release to first arrest (in months)

54

60

Note: Prisoners were tracked for 5 years following release. Prior arrest history
includes the number of times the prisoner was arrested prior to his or her date of
release.
Source: Bureau of Justice Statistics, Recidivism of State Prisoners Released in 2005
data collection.

Table 11
Recidivism of prisoners released in 30 states in 2005, by prior arrest history, most serious commitment offense, and time from
release to first arrest
Prior arrest history and most
serious commitment offense
All released prisoners
4 or fewer
Violent
Property
Drug
Public order*
5–9
Violent
Property
Drug
Public order*
10 or more
Violent
Property
Drug
Public order*

6 months
28.2%
15.5%
14.2
18.3
14.8
15.9
24.3%
23.9
28.5
21.6
22.6
38.6%
38.1
42.3
37.0
33.4

Cumulative percent of released prisoners arrested within—
1 year
2 years
3 years
4 years
43.4%
59.5%
67.8%
73.0%
26.4%
40.7%
50.0%
56.3%
23.8
36.5
45.3
51.7
31.4
47.2
57.4
63.8
25.1
40.8
50.1
56.4
28.2
41.4
50.8
56.2
39.8%
57.1%
66.3%
72.0%
38.0
55.8
64.8
70.4
46.2
63.1
71.8
76.9
37.0
55.7
65.5
71.6
36.5
50.5
59.9
65.9
56.1%
72.5%
79.5%
83.7%
55.4
71.7
77.3
81.7
59.9
76.2
82.5
86.2
55.0
71.1
78.8
83.3
49.5
67.6
76.2
80.6

5 years
76.6%
60.8%
56.3
67.9
61.2
60.2
75.9%
74.2
80.5
75.5
70.5
86.5%
85.6
88.3
86.2
83.5

Note: Prisoners were tracked for 5 years following release. Inmates could have been in prison for more than one offense; the most serious one is reported in this table.
Prior arrest history includes the number of times the prisoner was arrested prior to his or her date of release. See appendix table 12 for standard errors.
*Includes 0.8% of cases in which the prisoner’s most serious offense was unspecified.
Source: Bureau of Justice Statistics, Recidivism of State Prisoners Released in 2005 data collection.

Recidivism of Prisoners Released in 30 states in 2005: Patterns from 2005 to 2010 | April 2014

10

Male inmates were arrested at higher rates than
female inmates following release
Within 3 years of release from prison, 69.0% of male and
58.5% of female inmates had been arrested at least once
(figure 5 and table 12). Five years after release from prison,
more than three-quarters (77.6%) of males and two-thirds
(68.1%) of females had been arrested. At the end of the
first year, the male recidivism rate (44.5%) was about
10 percentage points higher than the female rate (34.4%), a
difference that remained relatively stable over the following
4 years.
Figure 5
Recidivism of prisoners released in 30 states in 2005, by sex
of releasee and time from release to first arrest
Percent arrested
100
80

Female

40

Table 13
Post-release arrests of prisoners released in 30 states in
2005, by sex of releasee

Estimated number of post-release arrests
Mean number
Median number
Number of released prisoners

20
0

The recidivism rates (as measured by arrests) for males were
higher than those for females, regardless of the incarceration
offense or the recidivism period. At the end of the 5-year
follow-up period, the post-release arrest rate for both males
and females was highest among those incarcerated for a
property offense.

Post-release arrests
All released prisoners
None
1
2
3
4
5
6 or more

Male

60

Among all released prisoners, the average number of arrests
in the 5-year period was 2.9 for males and 2.5 for females,
while the median number of arrests was 1.6 for males and
1.0 for females (table 13). Half (50.6%) of released females
and about 41.3% of released males were arrested no more
than once in the 5-year period, while 64.2% of females and
56.8% of males had 2 or fewer arrests over the same period.

0

6

12
18
24
30
36
42
48
Time from release to first arrest (in months)

54

60

Male
100%
22.4
18.9
15.5
11.7
8.7
6.4
16.4

Female
100%
31.9
18.7
13.6
9.5
6.9
5.8
13.5

1,065,000
2.9
1.6
361,469

108,000
2.5
1.0
43,170

Note: Prisoners were tracked for 5 years following release. Number of
post-release arrests was rounded to the nearest 1,000. Data on prisoner’s sex
were known for 100% of cases. See appendix table 14 for standard errors.
Source: Bureau of Justice Statistics, Recidivism of State Prisoners Released in 2005
data collection.

Note: Prisoners were tracked for 5 years following release. Data on prisoner’s sex
were known for 100% of cases.
Source: Bureau of Justice Statistics, Recidivism of State Prisoners Released in 2005
data collection.

Table 12
Recidivism of prisoners released in 30 states in 2005, by sex of releasee, most serious commitment offense, and time from
release to first arrest
Sex of releasee and most
serious commitment offense
All released prisoners
Male
Violent
Property
Drug
Public order*
Female
Violent
Property
Drug
Public order*

6 months
28.2%
28.9%
25.2
35.1
27.6
26.1
22.1%
19.8
23.8
21.9
19.2

1 year
43.4%
44.5%
38.9
52.3
43.6
40.8
34.4%
30.6
37.6
33.3
31.0

Cumulative percent of released prisoners arrested within—
2 years
3 years
4 years
59.5%
67.8%
73.0%
60.7%
69.0%
74.1%
54.4
62.3
67.9
68.6
76.4
80.9
60.7
69.4
74.8
56.3
65.4
70.5
49.8%
58.5%
63.9%
44.2
51.9
56.9
54.3
62.6
68.0
48.1
57.6
62.9
47.6
56.1
62.2

5 years
76.6%
77.6%
72.0
83.6
78.4
74.2
68.1%
60.8
72.1
67.3
66.5

Note: Prisoners were tracked for 5 years following release. Inmates could have been in prison for more than one offense; the most serious one is reported in this table.
Data on prisoner’s sex were known for 100% of cases. See appendix table 13 for standard errors.
*Includes 0.8% of cases in which the prisoner’s most serious offense was unspecified.
Source: Bureau of Justice Statistics, Recidivism of State Prisoners Released in 2005 data collection.

Recidivism of Prisoners Released in 30 states in 2005: Patterns from 2005 to 2010 | April 2014

11

Younger released inmates were arrested at higher
rates than older inmates following release
Three years after release, 75.9% of inmates who were age
24 or younger at the time of their release had been arrested
for a new offense, compared to 69.7% of those ages 25 to 39
and 60.3% of those age 40 or older (figure 6 and table 14).
These patterns were still evident by the end of the fifth year.
At the end of the 5-year recidivism period, 84.1% of inmates
released at age 24 or younger had been arrested for a new
offense, compared to 78.6% of those ages 25 to 39 and 69.2%
of those age 40 or older.

Figure 6
Recidivism of prisoners released in 30 states in 2005, by age
at release and time from release to first arrest
Percent arrested
100
24 or younger
80

25–39
40 or older

60
40
20
0

0

6

12
18
24
30
36
42
48
Time from release to first arrest (in months)

54

60

Note: Prisoners were tracked for 5 years following release. Data on prisoner’s age
were known for 100% of cases.
Source: Bureau of Justice Statistics, Recidivism of State Prisoners Released in 2005
data collection.

Table 14
Recidivism of prisoners released in 30 states in 2005, by age at release, most serious commitment offense, and time from
release to first arrest
Age at release and most serious
commitment offense
All released prisoners
24 or younger
Violent
Property
Drug
Public order*
25–29
Violent
Property
Drug
Public order*
30–34
Violent
Property
Drug
Public order*
35–39
Violent
Property
Drug
Public order*
40 or older
Violent
Property
Drug
Public order*

6 months
28.2%
34.0%
30.6
37.3
31.6
38.2
29.0%
25.1
34.2
27.4
30.0
28.0%
25.1
33.8
25.5
27.5
29.2%
26.7
35.0
27.8
24.1
24.0%
20.3
29.8
24.6
17.6

Cumulative percent of released prisoners arrested within—
1 year
2 years
3 years
4 years
43.4%
59.5%
67.8%
73.0%
51.3%
68.1%
75.9%
80.7%
45.6
62.7
71.1
76.2
55.1
70.9
78.3
82.9
50.0
69.3
77.4
82.4
56.2
69.8
76.2
80.8
45.4%
62.1%
71.1%
76.6%
39.6
56.5
66.4
72.7
51.1
67.3
75.4
80.0
44.3
61.5
70.8
76.6
48.1
64.3
72.1
77.0
43.4%
60.0%
68.1%
73.4%
38.6
54.9
62.4
68.2
50.9
68.3
76.0
80.7
41.2
58.4
66.8
72.2
42.3
56.4
66.0
71.2
44.4%
61.2%
69.8%
74.7%
42.1
59.6
66.1
70.6
52.8
69.3
77.6
81.9
40.7
56.7
67.0
72.8
38.0
56.0
64.9
70.3
37.3%
52.1%
60.3%
65.5%
31.5
43.4
50.3
56.0
44.9
61.2
69.0
73.8
38.7
54.2
62.5
67.6
28.8
44.4
55.3
60.6

5 years
76.6%
84.1%
80.4
85.8
85.4
84.7
80.3%
76.7
83.5
80.4
80.7
77.0%
72.0
83.7
76.1
75.2
78.1%
74.0
83.8
77.0
74.8
69.2%
60.7
76.9
71.2
63.9

Note: Prisoners were tracked for 5 years following release. Inmates could have been in prison for more than one offense; the most serious one is reported in this table.
Data on prisoner’s age were known for 100% of cases. See appendix table 15 for standard errors.
*Includes 0.8% of cases in which the prisoner’s most serious offense was unspecified.
Source: Bureau of Justice Statistics, Recidivism of State Prisoners Released in 2005 data collection.

Recidivism of Prisoners Released in 30 states in 2005: Patterns from 2005 to 2010 | April 2014

12

By the end of the fifth year after release, black
inmates had the highest recidivism rate among
all racial or ethnic groups
One year after release from prison, non-Hispanic
black (45.8%) and Hispanic (46.3%) inmates had been
arrested at similar rates. In comparison, non-Hispanic
white inmates (39.7%) had lower recidivism rates
within the first year of release than black and Hispanic
inmates (figure 7 and table 15). Over the next 4 years,
the recidivism rate for Hispanics did not increase as
much as that for blacks. By the end of the fifth year
after release from prison, white (73.1%) and Hispanic
(75.3%) offenders had lower recidivism rates than
black offenders (80.8%).
From at least 6 months after release from prison
through the end of the 5-year follow-up period, black
offenders had higher rates of recidivism than white
offenders. This pattern generally held, regardless of the
type of offense for which the inmate was imprisoned.
Three years after release, 55.6% of white inmates
who were imprisoned for a violent crime had been
arrested for a new offense, compared to 66.4% of black
inmates. By the end of the fifth year after release, these
proportions for inmates who were imprisoned for a
violent crime increased to 65.1% for white and 76.9%
for black inmates.

Figure 7
Recidivism of prisoners released in 30 states in 2005, by race or
Hispanic origin and time from release to first arrest
Percent arrested
100
Black/African Americana

80
60

Hispanic/Latino
Whitea

40

Othera

20
0

0

6

12

18
24
30
36
42
48
Time from release to first arrest (in months)

54

60

Note: Prisoners were tracked for 5 years following release. Data on prisoner’s race or
Hispanic origin were known for nearly 100% of cases.
aExcludes persons of Hispanic or Latino origin.
bIncludes persons identified as American Indian or Alaska Native; Asian, Native Hawaiian, or
other Pacific Islander; and persons of other races.
Source: Bureau of Justice Statistics, Recidivism of State Prisoners Released in 2005 data collection.

Table 15
Recidivism of prisoners released in 30 states in 2005, by race or Hispanic origin, most serious commitment offense, and time
from release to first arrest
Race/Hispanic origin and most
serious commitment offense
All released prisoners
Whitea
Violent
Property
Drug
Public orderb
Black/African Americana
Violent
Property
Drug
Public orderb
Hispanic/Latino
Violent
Property
Drug
Public orderb
Othera,c
Violent
Property
Drug
Public orderb

6 months
28.2%
25.6%
21.9
31.2
23.6
21.5
29.1%
26.1
33.9
28.5
27.3
32.3%
28.1
39.8
29.0
34.9
25.7%
19.9
36.5
19.4
23.0

Cumulative percent of released prisoners arrested within—
1 year
2 years
3 years
4 years
43.4%
59.5%
67.8%
73.0%
39.7%
55.5%
63.9%
69.3%
33.6
48.2
55.6
61.1
47.6
63.9
71.9
76.9
37.7
53.4
62.4
68.2
33.9
50.1
60.2
65.6
45.8%
63.2%
71.7%
77.2%
41.5
58.1
66.4
72.6
51.3
68.5
76.5
81.8
45.5
63.7
72.6
77.9
44.4
61.4
69.9
75.3
46.3%
60.7%
68.1%
72.2%
40.9
54.9
62.7
67.5
55.7
71.1
77.6
80.2
42.2
57.0
65.0
69.8
50.4
61.7
68.4
72.2
42.7%
58.3%
67.3%
72.1%
34.7
51.9
58.9
62.0
55.4
69.3
78.3
81.6
39.5
57.0
67.3
76.5
37.3
51.1
62.4
68.4

5 years
76.6%
73.1%
65.1
80.0
72.6
69.5
80.8%
76.9
84.5
81.5
79.1
75.3%
71.3
83.0
72.5
75.9
75.0%
66.6
83.7
78.1
71.2

Note: Prisoners were tracked for 5 years following release. Inmates could have been in prison for more than one offense; the most serious one is reported in this table.
Data on the prisoner’s race or Hispanic origin were known for nearly 100% of cases. See appendix table 16 for standard errors.
aExcludes persons of Hispanic or Latino origin.
bIncludes 0.8% of cases in which the prisoner’s most serious offense was unspecified.
cIncludes persons identified as American Indian or Alaska Native; Asian, Native Hawaiian, or other Pacific Islander; and persons of other races.
Source: Bureau of Justice Statistics, Recidivism of State Prisoners Released in 2005 data collection.

Recidivism of Prisoners Released in 30 states in 2005: Patterns from 2005 to 2010 | April 2014

13

Recidivism rates across the 5-year follow-up period for black
and Hispanic inmates differed by commitment offense. For
example, the recidivism rates at the end of the first year for
inmates committed for a violent or drug offense were similar

for both groups. By the fifth year after release, the recidivism
rates for Hispanics were lower than those for blacks
committed for violent or drug crimes.

Other measures of recidivism
An arrest is one of many possible measures of recidivism. In this
study, four additional measures (i.e., adjudication, conviction,
incarceration, and imprisonment) were prepared using criminal
history records. These measures were based on prisoners
released from the 29 states in the study that had the necessary
data. A fifth measure­­—return to prison—was prepared using
a combination of criminal history records and the records of
state departments of corrections. This measure was based on
prisoners released from 23 of the 30 states.
Because the various measures of recidivism set different criteria
for labeling a person as a recidivist, the percentage of inmates
classified as recidivists declined as the recidivism measurement
progressed from arrest to adjudication to conviction to
incarceration to imprisonment. Any use of these recidivism
rates must take into account the quality and completeness
of the data found in rap sheets. (See Methodology for
more information.)
Adjudication—Classifies persons as a recidivist when an arrest
resulted in the matter being sent deeper into the criminal
justice system to be sanctioned by a court. An estimated 49.8%
of inmates had an arrest within 3 years of release that resulted
in the matter being referred to criminal court for adjudication,
and 60.0% had an arrest within 5 years of release that resulted
in an adjudication (figure 8 and table 16).
Conviction—Classifies persons as a recidivist if the court
has determined the individual committed a new crime. An
estimated 45.2% of inmates had an arrest within 3 years of
release that resulted in a conviction in criminal court, and
55.4% of inmates had an arrest within 5 years that resulted in
a conviction.

Figure 8
Recidivism of prisoners released in 29 states in 2005, by
time from release to first arrest that led to recidivating
event
Percent of who recidivated
100
80
Adjudicationa

60
Return to prisonb

Convictiona

40

Incarcerationa

20
0

Imprisonmenta
0

6

12
18
24
30
36
42
48
Time from release to first arrest (in months)

54

60

Note: Prisoners were tracked for 5 years following release in 30 states.
Some states were excluded from the specific measures of recidivism. See
Methodology.
aBased on time from release to first arrest that led to recidivating event (i.e.,
adjudication, conviction, incarceration, or imprisonment) among inmates
released in 29 states.
bBased on time from release to first arrest that led to a prison sentence or first
prison admission for a technical violation without a new sentence among
inmates released in 23 states.
Source: Bureau of Justice Statistics, Recidivism of State Prisoners Released in
2005 data collection.

Continued on next page.

Recidivism of Prisoners Released in 30 states in 2005: Patterns from 2005 to 2010 | April 2014

14

Other measures of recidivism (continued)
Incarceration—Classifies persons as a recidivist when an
arrest resulted in a prison or jail sentence. An estimated 36.2%
of inmates had an arrest within 3 years of release that resulted
in a conviction with a disposition of a jail or prison sentence,
compared to 44.9% within 5 years of release.
Imprisonment—Classifies persons as a recidivist when an
arrest resulted in a prison sentence. Among inmates who had
an arrest that resulted in a conviction with a disposition of
a prison sentence, 22.0% were within 3 years of release, and
28.2% were within 5 years of release.
Return to prison—Classifies persons as a recidivist when an
arrest resulted in a conviction with a disposition of a prison
sentence or when the offender was returned to prison without
a new conviction because of a technical violation of his or her
release, such as failing a drug test or missing an appointment
with a parole officer. Within 3 years of release, 49.7% of
inmates either had an arrest that resulted in a conviction with

a disposition of a prison sentence or were returned to prison
without a new conviction because they violated a technical
condition of their release, as did 55.1% of inmates within
5 years of release.
Returning to prison is probably the most common measure
used in the field when studying the recidivism of released
inmates. Among inmates in this study who returned to prison
1 year after release in 2005, property crime offenders (36.4%)
had the highest percentage of recidivism. The 1-year returnto-prison percentages for violent (27.5%), drug (28.1%), and
public order (27.7%) inmates were equal, and all were lower
than that of property offenders. Five years after release from
prison, the return-to-prison rate of inmates committed for a
property offense (61.8%) remained higher than the return-toprison rates of inmates committed for a violent (50.6%), drug
(53.3%), or public order (52.6%) offense.

Table 16
Recidivism of prisoners released in 29 states in 2005, by most serious commitment offense and time from release to first
arrest that led to recidivating event
Recidivism measurement and most
serious commitment offense
Adjudicationa
Violent
Property
Drug
Public orderb
Convictiona
Violent
Property
Drug
Public orderb
Incarcerationa
Violent
Property
Drug
Public orderb
Imprisonmenta
Violent
Property
Drug
Public orderb
Return to prisonc
Violent
Property
Drug
Public orderb

6 months
15.2%
11.7
18.6
15.4
14.0
13.0%
9.8
16.0
13.1
12.0
9.8%
7.7
12.1
9.4
9.3
5.4%
4.2
7.2
4.8
4.9
17.6%
16.2
21.8
15.4
16.1

Cumulative percent of released prisoners who recidivated within—
1 year
2 years
3 years
4 years
26.3%
40.7%
49.8%
55.9%
20.6
33.7
41.7
48.0
31.8
46.9
56.2
62.1
26.3
41.7
51.1
57.1
24.7
38.6
48.4
54.6
23.0%
36.3%
45.2%
51.3%
17.6
29.5
37.2
43.4
27.9
42.1
51.5
57.3
23.0
37.2
46.1
52.3
22.2
34.8
44.7
50.5
17.5%
28.8%
36.2%
41.3%
13.9
23.5
29.8
35.0
21.5
33.5
41.6
46.9
17.0
29.0
36.1
41.2
17.1
27.9
36.7
41.6
10.0%
16.9%
22.0%
25.5%
7.5
13.2
17.3
20.3
13.0
20.7
26.5
30.3
9.4
16.4
21.5
25.1
9.6
16.6
22.2
25.8
30.4%
43.3%
49.7%
52.9%
27.5
39.5
45.4
48.4
36.4
49.6
56.2
59.5
28.1
41.8
48.0
51.2
27.7
39.4
46.7
50.1

5 years
60.0%
52.6
66.1
61.0
58.5
55.4%
48.0
61.2
56.3
54.2
44.9%
38.9
50.6
44.6
44.7
28.2%
22.9
33.4
27.6
28.2
55.1%
50.6
61.8
53.3
52.6

Note: Prisoners were tracked for 5 years following release in 30 states. Some states were excluded from the specific measures of recidivism. See Methodology.
Inmates could have been in prison for more than one offense; the most serious one is reported in this table. See appendix table 17 for standard errors.
aBased on time from release to first arrest that led to recidivating event (i.e., adjudication, conviction, incarceration, or imprisonment) among inmates released in
29 states.
bIncludes 0.8% of cases in which the prisoner’s most serious offense was unspecified.
cBased on time from release to first arrest that led to a prison sentence or first prison admission for a technical violation without a new sentence among inmates
released in 23 states.
Source: Bureau of Justice Statistics, Recidivism of State Prisoners Released in 2005 data collection.

Recidivism of Prisoners Released in 30 states in 2005: Patterns from 2005 to 2010 | April 2014

15

Methodology
Background
In 2008, the Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS) entered into
a data sharing agreement with the FBI’s Criminal Justice
Information Services (CJIS) Division and the International
Justice and Public Safety Network (Nlets) to provide BJS
access to criminal history records (i.e., rap sheets) through
the FBI’s Interstate Identification Index (III). A data security
agreement was executed between BJS, the FBI, and Nlets to
define the operational and technical practices used to protect
the confidentiality and integrity of the criminal history data
during exchange, processing, and storage.
The FBI’s III is an automated pointer system that allows
authorized agencies to determine whether any state
repository has criminal history records on an individual.
Nlets is a computer-based network that is responsible for
the interstate transmissions of federal and state criminal
history records. It allows users to query III and send requests
to states holding criminal history records on an individual.
The FBI also maintains criminal history records that they
are solely responsible for disseminating. The identification
bureaus that operate the central repositories in each state
respond automatically to requests over the Nlets network.
Responses received via Nlets represent an individual’s
national criminal history record.
Under the Criminal History Records Information Sharing
(CHRIS) Project (award 2008-BJ-CX-K040), Nlets
developed an automated collection system for BJS to
retrieve national criminal history records from the FBI
and state repositories on large samples of study subjects.
Nlets produced software to parse the fields from individual
criminal history records into a relational database. The
database consists of state- and federal-specific numeric
codes and text descriptions (e.g., criminal statutes and
case outcome information) in a uniform record layout. In
September 2010, BJS and Nlets conducted a pilot test of the
data collection system and rap sheet parsing programs to
ensure the software could handle the wide variations in the
nation’s criminal history records.

The Conversion of Criminal History Records into Research
Databases (CCHRRD) Project (grant 2009-BJ-CX-K058)
funded NORC at the University of Chicago to develop
software that standardizes the content of the relational
database produced by Nlets into a uniform coding structure
that supports national-level recidivism research. The
2005 prisoner recidivism study was the first project to use
the systems developed under the CHRIS and CCHRRD
projects. The electronic records accessed by BJS through III
for this study are the same records used by police officers
to determine the current criminal justice status (e.g., on
probation, parole, or bail) of a suspect; by judges to make
pretrial and sentencing decisions; and by corrections officials
to determine inmate classifications, parole releases, and
work furloughs.
Sampling
States were selected for the study based on their ability to
provide prisoner records and the FBI or state identification
numbers on persons released from correctional facilities
in 2005. The fingerprint-based identification numbers
were needed to obtain criminal history records on the
released prisoners. The prisoner records—obtained from
the state departments of corrections through BJS’s National
Corrections Reporting Program (NCRP)—also included
each inmate’s date of birth, sex, race, Hispanic origin,
confinement offenses, sentence length, type of prison
admission and release, and date of release. The 30 states
that supplied BJS with the required data included Alaska,
Arkansas, California, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Hawaii,
Iowa, Louisiana, Maryland, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri,
Nebraska, Nevada, New Jersey, New York, North Carolina,
North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Oregon, Pennsylvania,
South Carolina, South Dakota, Texas, Utah, Virginia,
Washington, and West Virginia. Among each of these
states, the percentage of prisoner records with a state or
FBI identification number ranged from 93% to 100%, and
averaged 99% (not shown).

Recidivism of Prisoners Released in 30 states in 2005: Patterns from 2005 to 2010 | April 2014

16

Of the 544,728 inmates released in the study’s 30 states
in 2005, 412,731 met BJS’s selection criteria for this study
(table 17). The study excluded releases that were transfers
to the custody of another authority, releases due to death,
releases on bond, releases to seek or participate in an appeal
of a case, and escapes from prison or absent without official
leave (AWOL). Inmates whose sentence was less than 1 year
were also excluded. The first release during 2005 was selected
for persons released multiple times during the year.
BJS drew a systematic random sample of eligible cases
from each of the 30 states. Sex was used to stratify the
sampling frame within each state. The eligible cases were
then separated into 16 categories based on the most serious
prison commitment offense. The sampling design included
all individuals who were in prison for homicide. Before
selecting the sample, prison records of persons committed
for a nonhomicide offense were grouped by sex, and then
sorted by the county in which the sentence was imposed,
race, Hispanic origin, age, and commitment offense. The
sampling rate for female prisoners was doubled to improve

the precision of their recidivism estimates. A total of 70,878
released prisoners were randomly selected to represent the
412,731 released in 2005 in the 30 states. Each prisoner in
the sample was assigned a weight based on the probability of
selection within the state.
Collecting and processing criminal records for
recidivism research
BJS received approval from the FBI’s Institutional Review
Board to access criminal history records through III for this
study. This study employed a 5-year follow-up period, two
years longer than found in previous BJS recidivism studies.
In June 2011, BJS sent the state and FBI identification
numbers supplied by the departments of corrections to
III via Nlets to collect the criminal history records on the
70,878 former prisoners. These criminal history records
contain information from the state that released them, as
well as all other states in the U.S., and records covering
events prior to and following their release in 2005. Over a

Table 17
Number of prisoners released in 30 states in 2005
State
All released prisoners
Alaska
Arkansas
California
Colorado
Florida
Georgia
Hawaii
Iowa
Louisiana
Maryland
Michigan
Minnesota
Missouri
Nebraska
Nevada
New Jersey
New York
North Carolina
North Dakota
Ohio
Oklahoma
Oregon
Pennsylvania
South Carolina
South Dakota
Texas
Utah
Virginia
Washington
West Virginia

Number of
released prisonersa
412,731
1,827
10,844
107,633
8,277
31,537
12,321
1,041
4,607
12,876
10,200
12,177
4,619
15,997
1,386
5,022
13,097
23,963
11,743
884
15,832
7,768
4,731
12,452
10,046
2,159
43,532
3,000
12,776
8,439
1,945

Number of
sample cases
70,878
1,158
2,785
4,604
2,351
3,350
2,763
793
1,897
2,806
2,597
2,603
1,897
2,919
966
1,973
2,697
3,532
2,748
686
3,070
2,345
1,955
2,840
2,537
1,285
3,779
1,569
2,719
2,443
1,211

Released prisoners included in the studyb
Weighted total
Sample size
404,638
69,279
1,764
1,118
10,513
2,697
106,116
4,542
8,042
2,281
30,975
3,285
12,054
2,697
1,022
779
4,465
1,839
12,552
2,737
9,859
2,513
11,775
2,519
4,581
1,882
15,513
2,828
1,366
952
4,965
1,949
12,992
2,674
23,448
3,459
11,335
2,653
868
674
15,688
3,038
7,459
2,250
4,625
1,912
12,020
2,741
9,982
2,519
2,151
1,280
43,118
3,742
2,974
1,556
12,319
2,619
8,234
2,382
1,864
1,162

Criminal history record collected
Number
Percent
68,597
99.0%
1,099
98.3
2,640
97.9
4,541
100
2,275
99.7
3,272
99.6
2,602
96.5
772
99.1
1,836
99.8
2,723
99.5
2,494
99.2
2,504
99.4
1,879
99.8
2,823
99.8
952
100
1,808
92.8
2,630
98.4
3,459
100
2,643
99.6
666
98.8
2,966
97.6
2,184
97.1
1,910
99.9
2,714
99.0
2,512
99.7
1,275
99.6
3,742
100
1,548
99.5
2,609
99.6
2,380
99.9
1,139
98.0

aExcludes releases of prisoners whose sentence was less than 1 year, releases to custody/detainer/warrant, releases due to death, escapes or being absent without leave,
transfers, administrative releases, and releases on appeal. The first release was selected for persons released multiple times during 2005.
bExcludes 1,595 sampled prisoners who died during the 5-year follow-up period and four cases determined to be invalid release records.
Source: Bureau of Justice Statistics, Recidivism of State Prisoners Released in 2005 data collection.

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17

3-week period, Nlets electronically collated the responses
received from the FBI and state criminal history repositories
into a relational database.
The criminal history information on the sampled prisoners
from 30 states included over 800,000 pre- and post-release
arrests and dispositions from more than 25,000 criminal
justice agencies in all 50 states and the District of Columbia.
BJS conducted a series of data quality checks on the criminal
history records to assess the accuracy and completeness
of the information, beginning with an examination of the
response messages and the identification numbers that
failed to match a record in III. In August 2011, BJS had
Nlets submit a separate set of record requests directly to the
state repositories for cases in which the original request in
June did not produce criminal history information. These
secondary requests provided additional criminal history
records that were not available through III.
To ensure that the correct records were received on
the released prisoners using their fingerprint-based
identification numbers, BJS compared other individual
identifiers in the NCRP data to those reported in the
criminal history records. A released prisoner’s date of birth
in the NCRP data exactly matched his or her birthdate in the
criminal history records 98% of the time. Nearly 100% of the
NCRP and criminal history records matched on sex and race
at the person level.
This report relied on a combination of arrest charge, court
disposition, incarceration sentence, and custody information
to measure recidivism. Juvenile offenses were rarely included
in the criminal history records unless the offender was
charged or tried in court as an adult. BJS reviewed the
composition of information reported in the criminal history
records for distributional differences and inconsistencies
in reporting practices and observed some variations across
states. During the data processing and analysis phases, steps
were taken to standardize the information used to measure
recidivism and to minimize the impact these variations had
on the overall recidivism estimates.
For example, administrative (e.g., a criminal registration or
the issuance of a warrant) and procedural (e.g., transferring
a suspect to another jurisdiction) records embedded in
the arrest data that did not refer to an actual arrest were
identified and removed from the study. Traffic violations
(with the exception of vehicular manslaughter, driving while
intoxicated, and hit-and-run) were also excluded from the
study because the coverage of these events in the criminal
history records varied widely by state.
The criminal history records from some states recorded
sentence modifications that occurred after the original
court disposition and sentence while records from other

states did not. To ensure consistent counting rules were
employed when measuring recidivism across states, the
initial court disposition was captured for an arrest charge
when subsequent sentence modifications were also reported
within the same arrest cycle. For instance, if a court
adjudication was originally deferred and then later modified
to a conviction, the deferred adjudication was coded as the
disposition for that arrest charge.
To assess the completeness of the adjudication and
incarceration information reported in the criminal history
records, BJS attempted to identify an incarceration sentence
(within the state where the release occurred) in each
prisoner’s criminal history prior to the date of his or her
most recent prison admission before being released in 2005
according to the NCRP. Overall, 93% of the cases had a
criminal history record that met these criteria.
Most criminal history records reported detailed information
on the offender’s adjudicated guilt or innocence and, if
convicted, on the sentence imposed (e.g., prison, jail, or
probation). BJS examined the disposition rates and found
the proportion of arrests with a court disposition varied
across states. This could be due to natural variations in state
practices. However, the variations may be caused by either
a lack of reporting court dispositions to the state repository
or the inability of the repository to connect a reported
court disposition to a specific arrest. BJS also found in
some states that disposition information for certain arrests,
such as arrests for failure to appear or contempt of court,
was sometimes reported back on the earlier arrest for the
underlying crime.
One aspect of recidivism measured in this study was a
return to prison for a technical parole or other community
supervision violation (e.g., failing a drug test or missing
an appointment with a probation officer) or a sentence
for a new crime. BJS found that the availability of the
information on technical violations varied in the criminal
history records by state likely because those types of returns
to prison may not involve a new court sentence. Given
the inconsistent reporting of such custody information in
the criminal history records, the annual prison admission
records from the NCRP were used to supplement the
criminal history data to capture returns to prison with or
without a sentence for a new crime. Analyzing the NCRP
data, BJS used a set of individual identifiers (e.g., state
identification number, inmate identification number, date
of birth, sex, and race) to locate information on new prison
admissions for a study subject during the 5 years following
release in 2005. Using this information in combination with
incarcerations recorded on the rap sheets, BJS identified
released prisoners who returned to prison within the 5-year
recidivism window.

Recidivism of Prisoners Released in 30 states in 2005: Patterns from 2005 to 2010 | April 2014

18

Adjustment of sample weights
Deaths
BJS determined that 1,595 of the 70,878 sampled prisoners
died during the 5-year follow-up period. Initial identification
of sampled prisoners who died within the 5-year follow-up
period was done using death information contained
on the rap sheets. Additional deaths were identified by
probabilistically linking sampled prisoners to individuals
identified as dead in the Social Security Administration’s
(SSA) public Death Master File (DMF).
Specifically, linkplus, a probabilistic record linkage program
developed by CDC, was used to create and score potential
matches between the released prisoners’ records and the
public DMF, using common information found on each
file (i.e., social security number (SSN), first name, last
name, and date of birth (DOB))1. For persons with multiple
SSNs, names and DOBs, all possible combinations (over
3.5 million unique permutations) were tested for matches.
Based on the framework and decision rules as proposed
by Fellegi and Sunter (1969), the software computed a
probabilistic record linkage score for each matched record,
with the score representing the sum of the agreement and
disagreement weights for each matching variable; the higher
the score, the greater the likelihood that the match made is
a true match.2 In order to differentiate true matches from
false matches, the scores of the linked records were manually
evaluated to ascertain the appropriate upper and lower
bound cutoff scores. During this review, it was determined
that records with a score of 20.0 or higher were exact
matches of name, SSN, and DOB, and scores of less than 10.9
indicated none of the personally identifiable information
matched. Accordingly, these cutoffs were used as the upper
and lower cutoff scores to automatically designate true
matches and nonmatches. All remaining pairs that fell
between the upper and lower cutoff scores were manually
reviewed by two independent reviewers and independently
categorized and all discrepancies where the reviewers did
not agree (less than 1%) were jointly classified.
Of importance, the number of released prisoners who
were identified as dead in the DMF likely represents an
undercount of the actual number of deaths within the
sample. This is due, in part, to the limitations of the public
DMF. Specifically, due to state disclosure laws, the public
DMF does not include information on certain protected
state death records (defined as records received via SSA’s
contracts with the states). This change, which occurred in
November 2011, resulted in SSA removing over 4.2 million
state-reported death records from the public DMF and
1Link Plus Version 2.10 probabilistic record linkage software. Atlanta, GA:
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 2006.
2Fellegi, I. P., & Sunter, A. B. (1969). A theory for record linkage. Journal of
the American Statistical Association, 64, 1183–12.

adding over 1 million fewer records annually to the current
public DMF thereafter. As a result, the public DMF contains
an undercount of annual deaths.
It is unknown precisely how extensively the public DMF
undercounts the annual number of deaths. Preliminary
analyses comparing the number of deaths in the public DMF
to those reported via the Centers for Disease Control and
Prevention’s (CDC) mortality counts suggest that in 2005 the
public DMF undercounted the overall number of deaths in the
United States by around 10%. The undercount has increased
each year since 2005. As of 2010 the public DMF contained
around half (45%) of the deaths reported by the CDC (not
shown). Furthermore, the coverage of the public DMF differs
by decedent age, with younger decedents being less likely to
appear in the public file. Because of this, it is likely that the
death count of prisoners released in 2005 is an undercount of
the actual number of deaths within the sample.
The 1,595 prisoners who died during the follow-up period
were excluded from the study, along with four additional
cases that were later determined to be invalid release
records. When weighted, these 1,599 cases represented
8,092 prison releases. Therefore, the study’s sample of 69,279
eligible prisoners is statistically representative of the 404,638
prisoners released in 2005 who were identified as living for
at least 5 years after their dates of release.
Missing criminal history records
Among the 69,279 eligible prisoners sampled from 30 states,
BJS did not obtain criminal history records on 406 subjects
because the departments of corrections were unable
to provide their FBI or state identification number. An
additional 276 prisoners had an identification number, but
no criminal history record linked to this number was found
in the FBI or state record repositories. To account for the
missing data, the original sample weights for the cases with
complete criminal history information required adjustment.
The sample weights for the 682 cases without a criminal
history record were equally distributed among the weights
of the 68,597 cases with the same commitment offense,
demographic characteristics (i.e., sex, race, Hispanic origin,
and age category), and state where released. The adjusted
weights for the final sample of 68,597 persons were used
to produce recidivism estimates on the 404,638 persons
released from prison in the 30 states in 2005.
Conducting tests of statistical significance
Because this study was based on a sample and not a complete
enumeration, the estimates in this report are subject to
sampling error (i.e., a discrepancy between an estimate and a
population parameter based on chance). One measure of the
sampling error associated with an estimate is the standard
error. The standard error can vary from one estimate
to the next. In general, for a given metric, an estimate
with a smaller standard error provides a more reliable

Recidivism of Prisoners Released in 30 states in 2005: Patterns from 2005 to 2010 | April 2014

19

approximation of the true value than an estimate with a
larger standard error. Estimates with relatively large standard
errors are associated with less precision and reliability and
should be interpreted with caution. BJS conducted tests to
determine whether differences in estimated numbers and
percentages were statistically significant once sampling error
was taken into account.
All differences discussed in this report are statistically
significant at or above the 95% confidence interval. Standard
errors were generated using SUDAAN, a statistical software
package that estimates sampling error from complex sample
surveys. Standard errors for each table are available at the
end of the report.
Computing population-adjusted estimates of
recidivism for the 1994 and 2005 studies
To examine how the recidivism rates from this study
compared with those found in the previous one that
measured the recidivism of prisoners released in 1994,
BJS limited the comparison to the post-release arrest
rates among inmates released from state prisons in the
12 states that were in both studies (California, Florida,
Maryland, Michigan, Minnesota, New Jersey, New York,
North Carolina, Ohio, Oregon, Texas, and Virginia). To
control for the compositional differences in the types of
prisoners released in these states during 1994 and 2005,
RTI International (RTI) assisted BJS with standardizing
the distribution of the 2005 prison release cohort to the
distribution of the 1994 prison release cohort based on the
following categorical variables.
„„

Sex (male or female)

„„

Age at release (24 or younger, 25 to 29, 30 to 34, 35 to 39,
or 40 or older)

„„

Race/Hispanic origin (non-Hispanic white, non-Hispanic
black, Hispanic, or other race)

„„

Most serious prison commitment offense (violent,
property, drug, or public order).

RTI used SUDAAN software to generate the standardized
estimates and determine whether any differences between
the estimates for 1994 and 2005 cohorts were statistically
significant. The following procedures were used to complete
the analysis.
1.	 Missing data on the demographic characteristics and
commitment offenses of the inmates were imputed
using a stochastic imputation approach, which
determined the cumulative distribution function (CDF)
for the characteristic being imputed based on inmates
with a known value for the characteristic. Inmates with
a missing value were randomly assigned a value based
on the CDF. For age at release, the CDF was conditioned
on the sex of the inmate. For all other characteristics,
the CDF was conditioned on the sex and age at release

of the inmate. Data on the sex of inmates released in
1994 were known for 100% of cases, race and Hispanic
origin for 99.9%, age at release for nearly 100%, and
commitment offense for 99.9%. Data on sex of inmates
released in 2005 were known for 100% of cases, race and
Hispanic origin for 99.8%, age at release for 100%, and
commitment offense for 99.8%.
2.	 A joint probability distribution was produced of
inmates in the 1994 cohort based on sex, age at release,
race/Hispanic origin, and most serious commitment
offense. This distribution documented the proportion
of the 1994 cohort that fell into each of 160 specific
inmate subpopulations defined by crossing five
categories of age, two categories of sex, four categories
of race/Hispanic origin, and four categories of
commitment offenses.
3.	 In order to allow for simultaneous estimation and
comparisons, a stacked file was created containing the
records on both the 1994 cohort and the 2005 cohort. A
new variable (called GROUP) was created to distinguish
in which cohort the inmate resided (1=1994 and
2=2005).
4.	 The PROC DESCRIPT procedure in SUDAAN was
used to generate the standardized point estimates.
This approach standardized the estimates for the 2005
cohort to the probability distribution of the 1994 cohort
obtained in step 2.
a.	 The standard errors for the standardized estimates
were calculated in SUDAAN with a “without
replacement” sample design (DESIGN = WOR).
b.	 The sampling weights for the 1994 and 2005 studies
were assigned in the WEIGHT statement.
c.	 A single variable that accounted for the unique
sample designs of the 1994 and 2005 studies was
specified in the NEST statement.
d.	 In the STDVAR statement, the four imputed
inmate characteristic variables were listed in the
order the probability distribution was created­—
sex, age, race/Hispanic origin, and commitment
offense. These variables were also listed in the
CLASS statement.
e.	 The joint probability distribution of the 1994 cohort
was listed in the STDWGT statement.
f.	

In the TABLE statement, the GROUP variable
was crossed with each of the nonimputed inmate
characteristics. In other words, an index combining
the cohort identifier and each of the inmate
characteristics was specified. This generated a
separate marginal recidivism estimate for each set
of inmate characteristics by cohort year.

Recidivism of Prisoners Released in 30 states in 2005: Patterns from 2005 to 2010 | April 2014

20

g.	 The recidivism outcome variables of interest
(i.e., arrested for any type of crime and arrested for
a violent crime) were listed in the VAR statement.
h.	 The mean (MEAN) and standard error of the mean
(SEMEAN) were calculated, imported into a table,
and then converted into percentages by multiplying
the proportions by 100.
5.	 The PROC DESCRIPT procedure was used to test the
statistical differences for each inmate characteristic
between the 1994 cohort and the standardized 2005
cohort. Using the PROC DESCRIPT procedure to
conduct the test of differences allowed any correlation
between the two cohort groups to be accounted for in
the standard error of the test statistic.

„„

Conviction: An arrest within 5 years of exiting prison
in 2005 that resulted in a subsequent court conviction.
Information on the number of convictions is based on
each unique arrest date that led to a conviction, not the
date of conviction.

„„

Incarceration: An arrest within 5 years of exiting
prison in 2005 that resulted in a prison or jail sentence.
Information on the number of incarcerations is based
on each unique arrest date that led to a prison or jail
sentence, not the date that the sentence was imposed.

„„

Imprisonment: An arrest within 5 years of exiting prison
in 2005 that resulted in a prison sentence. When the type
of facility (e.g., prison or jail) where an incarceration
sentence was to be served was not reported in the
criminal history records, a sentence of a year or more was
defined as imprisonment. Information on the number of
prison sentences is based on each unique arrest date that
led to a prison sentence, not the date that the sentence was
imposed.

a.	 The same DESIGN, WEIGHT, NEST, STDVAR, and
STDWGT statements specified in step 4 were used
to conduct the statistical significance tests.
b.	 The inmate characteristics were listed in the
TABLE statement.
c.	 The same VAR statement was used from step 4.
d.	 The two levels in the GROUP variable were
compared using the DIFFVAR statement.
e.	 In the CATLEVEL statement, the numeric code “1”
was indicated to get the percentages of inmates who
had a post-release arrest within 3 years.
f.	

The difference in the percentages (PERCENT), the
standard error of the percentages (SEPERCENT),
the test for the statistical difference (T_PCT), and
the p-value for the test statistic (P_PCT) were
imported into a table.

6.	 The p-value was used to determine which comparisons
were significant at the 95% confidence interval, and
those comparisons were assigned a symbol of “**.”
Recidivism measures
This study measured six types of events to describe the
recidivism of persons released from prison in 2005:
„„

Arrest: An arrest within 5 years of exiting prison in 2005.
Information presented on the number of arrests is based
on unique arrest dates, not individual charges.

„„

Adjudication: An arrest within 5 years of exiting prison
in 2005 that resulted in a subsequent court adjudication
or disposition (e.g., convictions, dismissals, acquittals, or
deferred adjudications). Information on the number of
adjudications is based on each unique arrest date that led
to an adjudication, not the date of adjudication.

The arrests that occurred within the 5-year follow-up period
were tracked for an additional 6 months to determine
whether the case outcomes led to an adjudication,
conviction, incarceration, or imprisonment. These four
measures were based on prisoners released in 29 of the
study’s 30 states. Louisiana prisoners were excluded because
the disposition and sentencing information from that state
was generally not linked to the associated arrest.
„„

Return to prison: An arrest or a technical violation of
a condition of release within 5 years of exiting prison in
2005 that resulted in a return to prison. This recidivism
measure incorporates the criminal history records from
the FBI and state repositories and the prisoner records
obtained from the state departments of corrections
through the NCRP. The criminal history records provided
information on arrests that resulted in incarceration
during the 5-year follow-up period. BJS used the NCRP
files from 2005 through 2010 to supplement the criminal
history records with information on the released prisoners
who returned to prison for a technical violation that did
not involve a sentence for a new crime.

Prisoners released from Maryland, Nebraska, Nevada,
Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia were excluded from the
return-to-prison analysis because the individual identifiers
or complete prison admission data needed to locate returns
to prison during the entire 2005 through 2010 observation
window were not available. Louisiana prisoners were also
excluded from the return-to-prison analysis because the
sentencing information in the criminal history records from
this state was generally not linked to the associated arrest.

Recidivism of Prisoners Released in 30 states in 2005: Patterns from 2005 to 2010 | April 2014

21

Violent offenses include homicide, rape or sexual assault,
robbery, assault, and other miscellaneous or unspecified
violent offenses.

Other violent offenses contain a range of crimes,
including intimidation, illegal abortion, extortion, cruelty
towards a child or wife, kidnapping, hit-and-run with
bodily injury, and miscellaneous or unspecified crimes
against the person.

Homicide includes murder, nonnegligent
manslaughter, negligent manslaughter, and unspecified
homicide offenses.

Property offenses include burglary, fraud/forgery, larceny,
motor vehicle theft, and other miscellaneous or unspecified
property offenses.

Offense definitions

Murder is (1) intentionally causing the death of
another person without extreme provocation or legal
justification, or (2) causing the death of another while
committing or attempting to commit another crime.
Nonnegligent (or voluntary) manslaughter is
intentionally and without legal justification causing
the death of another when acting under extreme
provocation.
Negligent (or involuntary) manslaughter is causing
the death of another person through recklessness or
gross negligence, without intending to cause death.
Negligent manslaughter also includes vehicular
manslaughter, but excludes vehicular murder
(intentionally killing someone with a motor vehicle),
which is classified as murder.
Rape or sexual assault includes (1) forcible intercourse
(vaginal, anal, or oral) with a female or male, (2) forcible
sodomy or penetration with a foreign object (sometimes
called “deviate sexual assault”), (3) forcible or violent
sexual acts not involving intercourse with an adult or
minor, (4) nonforcible sexual acts with a minor (such as
statutory rape or incest with a minor), and (5) nonforcible
sexual acts with someone unable to give legal or
factual consent because of mental or physical defect
or intoxication.
Robbery is the unlawful taking of property that is in the
immediate possession of another, by force or the threat
of force. Includes forcible purse snatching, but excludes
nonforcible purse snatching.
Assault includes aggravated, simple and unspecified
assault. Aggravated assault includes (1) intentionally and
without legal justification causing serious bodily injury,
with or without a deadly weapon, or (2) using a deadly
or dangerous weapon to threaten, attempt, or cause
bodily injury, regardless of the degree of injury, if any.
The category also includes attempted murder, aggravated
battery, felonious assault, and assault with a deadly
weapon. Simple assault includes intentionally and without
legal justification causing less than serious bodily injury
without a deadly or dangerous weapon, or attempting
or threatening bodily injury without a dangerous or
deadly weapon.

Burglary is the unlawful entry of a fixed structure used for
regular residence, industry, or business, with or without
the use of force, to commit a felony or theft.
Larceny is the unlawful taking of property other than
a motor vehicle from the possession of another, by
stealth, without force or deceit. Includes pocket picking,
nonforcible purse snatching, shoplifting, and thefts from
motor vehicles. Excludes receiving or reselling stolen
property or both, and thefts through fraud or deceit.
Motor vehicle theft is the unlawful taking of a selfpropelled road vehicle owned by another. Includes the
theft of automobiles, trucks, and motorcycles, but not
the theft of boats, aircraft, or farm equipment (classified
as larceny). Also includes receiving, possessing,
stripping, transporting, and reselling stolen vehicles, and
unauthorized use of a vehicle (joyriding).
Fraud/forgery includes using deceit or intentional
misrepresentation to unlawfully deprive persons of his
or her property or legal rights. It also includes offenses
such as embezzlement, check fraud, confidence game,
counterfeiting, and credit card fraud.
Other property offenses include arson, stolen property
offenses, possession of burglary tools, damage to
property, trespassing, and miscellaneous or unspecified
property crimes.
Drug offenses include possession, trafficking, and other
miscellaneous or unspecified drug offenses.
Drug possession includes possession of an illegal drug,
but excludes possession with intent to sell. It also includes
offenses involving drug paraphernalia and forged or
unauthorized prescriptions.
Drug trafficking includes manufacturing, distributing,
selling, smuggling, and possession with intent to sell.
Other drug offenses include offenses involving drug
paraphernalia, forged or unauthorized prescriptions, and
other miscellaneous or unspecified drug offenses.

Recidivism of Prisoners Released in 30 states in 2005: Patterns from 2005 to 2010 | April 2014

22

Public order offenses include weapons offenses,
driving under the influence, and other miscellaneous or
unspecified offenses.
Weapons offenses include the unlawful sale, distribution,
manufacture, alteration, transportation, possession, or use
of a deadly or dangerous weapon or accessory.
Driving under the influence (DUI) is driving
under the influence of drugs or alcohol and driving
while intoxicated.
Other public order offenses are those that violate
the peace or order of the community or threaten
the public health or safety through unacceptable
conduct, interference with governmental authority, or
the violation of civil rights or liberties. The category
also includes probation or parole violation, escape,
obstruction of justice, court offenses, nonviolent sex
offenses, commercialized vice, family offenses, liquor law
violations, bribery, invasion of privacy, disorderly conduct,
contributing to the delinquency of a minor, and other
miscellaneous or unspecified offenses.

Recidivism of Prisoners Released in 30 states in 2005: Patterns from 2005 to 2010 | April 2014

23

Appendix table 1
Standard errors for table 1: Characteristics of prisoners
released in 12 states in 1994 and 2005
Characteristic
Sex
Male
Female
Race/Hispanic origin
White
Black /African American
Hispanic/Latino
Other
Age at release
24 or younger
25–29
30–34
35–39
40 or older
Most serious commitment offense
Violent
Property
Drug
Public order

1994

2005

0.28%
0.28

---

0.41%
0.45
0.40
0.08

0.38%
0.37
0.37
0.13

0.37%
0.40
0.40
0.35
0.35

0.30%
0.32
0.30
0.30
0.38

0.11%
0.12
0.21
0.19

0.36%
0.37
0.38
0.25

-- Less than 0.005%.
Source: Bureau of Justice Statistics, Recidivism of State Prisoners Released in 1994
and 2005 data collections.

Appendix table 2
Standard errors for table 2: Population-adjusted percent of
prisoners arrested for a new crime within 3 years following
release in 12 states in 1994 and 2005, by demographic
characteristics and most serious commitment offense
Characteristic
All released prisoners
Sex
Male
Female
Race/Hispanic origin
White
Black/African American
Hispanic/Latino
Other
Age at release
24 or younger
25–29
30–34
35–39
40 or older
Most serious commitment offense
Violent
Property
Drug
Public order

1994
0.41%

2005
0.35%

0.43%
1.54

0.38%
0.78

0.72%
0.56
1.05
4.66

0.60%
0.49
0.92
2.70

0.81%
0.87
0.89
1.01
1.08

0.73%
0.75
0.89
0.86
0.66

0.69%
0.70
0.78
1.40

0.68%
0.65
0.63
1.00

Appendix table 3
Standard errors for table 3: First arrest charge of prisoners
arrested for a new crime within 3 years following release in
11 states in 1994 and 2005
Most serious arrest charge
Violent
Property
Drug
Public order
Estimated number of prisoners with
a post-release arrest

1994
0.47%
0.55
0.57
0.47

2005
0.35%
0.43
0.45
0.51

1,053.17

978.74

Source: Bureau of Justice Statistics, Recidivism of State Prisoners Released in
1994 and 2005 data collections.

Appendix table 4
Standard errors for table 4: Population-adjusted percent of
prisoners arrested for a violent crime within 3 years following
release in 11 states in 1994 and 2005, by demographic
characteristics and most serious commitment offense
Characteristic
All released prisoners
Sex
Male
Female
Race/Hispanic origin
White
Black/African American
Hispanic/Latino
Other
Age at release
24 or younger
25–29
30–34
35–39
40 or older
Most serious commitment offense
Violent
Property
Drug
Public order

1994
0.39%

2005
0.38%

0.41%
0.96

0.40%
0.93

0.58%
0.63
0.87
3.07

0.58%
0.58
0.86
5.17

0.93%
0.85
0.84
0.85
0.81

0.91%
0.86
0.85
0.85
0.64

0.73%
0.67
0.71
1.20

0.72%
0.72
0.67
0.94

Source: Bureau of Justice Statistics, Recidivism of State Prisoners Released in
1994 and 2005 data collections.

Source: Bureau of Justice Statistics, Recidivism of State Prisoners Released in 1994
and 2005 data collections.

Recidivism of Prisoners Released in 30 states in 2005: Patterns from 2005 to 2010 | April 2014

24

Appendix table 5
Standard errors for table 5: Characteristics of prisoners
released in 30 states in 2005

Appendix table 6
Standard errors for table 6: Out-of-state arrests of prisoners
released in 30 states in 2005 arrests

Characteristic
Sex
Male
Female
Race/Hispanic origin
White
Black/African American
Hispanic/Latino
Other
Age at release
24 or younger
25–29
30–34
35–39
40 or older
Most serious commitment offense
Violent
Property
Drug
Public order
Number of prior arrests per released prisoner
2 or fewer
3–4
5–9
10 or more
Mean number
Median number

Out-of-state arrests
Prior to release
1 or more
1–4
5–9
10 or more
Post-release
1 or more
1–4
5–9
10 or more

Number of prior convictions per released prisoner
Mean number
Median number

Percent
--0.28%
0.27
0.26
0.09
0.22%
0.24
0.22
0.22
0.28
0.26%
0.28
0.28
0.18
0.15%
0.18
0.27
0.29
0.06
0.05
0.03
0.03

-- Less than 0.005%.
Source: Bureau of Justice Statistics, Recidivism of State Prisoners Released in 2005
data collection.

Percent
0.24%
0.21
0.11
0.09
0.16%
0.15
0.05
0.02

Source: Bureau of Justice Statistics, Recidivism of State Prisoners Released in 2005
data collection.

Appendix table 7
Standard errors for figure 2: Percent of prisoners arrested
during the year who had not been arrested since release in
30 states in 2005
Year after release
Year 1
Year 2
Year 3
Year 4
Year 5

Annual failure rate
0.29%
0.33
0.34
0.34
0.34

Source: Bureau of Justice Statistics, Recidivism of State Prisoners Released in 2005
data collection.

Appendix table 8
Standard errors for table 7: Post-release arrests of prisoners
released in 30 states in 2005
Post-release arrests
None
1
2
3
4
5
6 or more
Estimated number of post-release arrests
Mean number per released prisoners
Median number per released prisoners

Percent
0.23%
0.22
0.21
0.19
0.17
0.16
0.24
8,328.32
0.02
0.02

Source: Bureau of Justice Statistics, Recidivism of State Prisoners Released in 2005
data collection.

Recidivism of Prisoners Released in 30 states in 2005: Patterns from 2005 to 2010 | April 2014

25

Appendix table 9
Standard errors for table 8: Recidivism of prisoners released in 30 states in 2005, by most serious commitment offense and
time from release to first arrest
Most serious commitment offense
All released prisoners
Violent
Homicide
Murder
Nonnegligent manslaughter
Negligent manslaughter
Rape/sexual assault
Robbery
Assault
Other
Property
Burglary
Larceny/motor vehicle theft
Fraud/forgery
Other
Drug
Possession
Trafficking
Other
Public order
Weapons
Driving under the influence
Other

6 months
0.28%
0.56%
0.04
0.05
0.12
0.06
1.19
1.02
1.04
2.25
0.56%
0.87
1.06
1.13
1.63
0.51%
1.00
0.78
0.93
0.74%
1.92
1.07
0.92

Cumulative percent of released prisoners arrested within—
1 year
2 years
3 years
4 years
0.29%
0.27%
0.25%
0.24%
0.60%
0.58%
0.55%
0.52%
0.05
0.06
0.06
0.06
0.06
0.08
0.08
0.08
0.16
0.18
0.19
0.19
0.08
0.09
0.10
0.10
1.33
1.37
1.35
1.33
1.07
1.02
0.96
0.92
1.09
1.03
0.96
0.90
2.27
2.12
2.01
1.94
0.55%
0.49%
0.45%
0.41%
0.88
0.80
0.73
0.68
1.01
0.89
0.81
0.75
1.15
1.07
0.98
0.93
1.62
1.44
1.26
1.13
0.53%
0.50%
0.46%
0.43%
1.04
0.97
0.90
0.82
0.82
0.77
0.72
0.68
0.97
0.88
0.80
0.74
0.77%
0.74%
0.70%
0.67%
1.87
1.66
1.51
1.43
1.24
1.38
1.41
1.39
0.98
0.93
0.87
0.82

5 years
0.23%
0.50%
0.06
0.08
0.19
0.10
1.30
0.85
0.84
1.85
0.39%
0.64
0.71
0.87
1.06
0.41%
0.78
0.65
0.68
0.64%
1.36
1.36
0.76

Source: Bureau of Justice Statistics, Recidivism of State Prisoners Released in 2005 data collection.

Appendix table 10
Standard errors for table 9: Recidivism of prisoners released
in 30 states in 2005, by type of post-release arrest charge
Post-release arrest charge
Any offense
Violent
Homicide
Rape/sexual assault
Robbery
Assault
Other
Property
Burglary
Larceny/motor vehicle theft
Fraud/forgery
Other
Drug
Possession
Trafficking
Other
Public order
Weapons
Driving under the influence
Probation/parole violation
Other

Percent of released prisoners
arrested within 5 years of release
0.23%
0.27%
0.06
0.08
0.15
0.25
0.12
0.29%
0.19
0.24
0.20
0.24
0.29%
0.27
0.21
0.25
0.27%
0.19
0.18
0.26
0.29

Source: Bureau of Justice Statistics, Recidivism of State Prisoners Released in 2005
data collection.

Recidivism of Prisoners Released in 30 states in 2005: Patterns from 2005 to 2010 | April 2014

26

Appendix table 11
Standard errors for table 10: Recidivism of prisoners released in 30 states in 2005, by type of post-release arrest charge and
most serious commitment offense
Most serious commitment offense
All released prisoners
Violent
Property
Drug
Public order

Any offense
0.23%
0.50
0.39
0.41
0.64

Percent of released prisoners arrested within 5 years for —
Violent offense
Property offense
Drug offense
0.27%
0.29%
0.29%
0.57
0.55
0.56
0.50
0.56
0.56
0.47
0.51
0.53
0.71
0.73
0.73

Public order offense
0.27%
0.57
0.51
0.50
0.72

Source: Bureau of Justice Statistics, Recidivism of State Prisoners Released in 2005 data collection.

Appendix table 12
Standard errors for table 11: Recidivism of prisoners released in 30 states in 2005, by prior arrest history, most serious
commitment offense, and time from release to first arrest
Prior arrest history and most
serious commitment offense
All released prisoners
4 or fewer
Violent
Property
Drug
Public order
5–9
Violent
Property
Drug
Public order
10 or more
Violent
Property
Drug
Public order

6 months
0.28%
0.38%
0.60
0.83
0.72
1.17
0.48%
1.02
0.95
0.76
1.24
0.50%
1.21
0.85
0.90
1.27

Cumulative percent of released prisoners arrested within—
1 year
2 years
3 years
4 years
0.29%
0.27%
0.25%
0.24%
0.45%
0.48%
0.48%
0.47%
0.72
0.78
0.80
0.80
0.98
1.05
1.03
1.00
0.82
0.90
0.90
0.88
1.30
1.33
1.30
1.27
0.52%
0.50%
0.47%
0.44%
1.09
1.07
1.01
0.96
0.98
0.91
0.83
0.77
0.86
0.84
0.79
0.73
1.32
1.31
1.27
1.22
0.48%
0.42%
0.38%
0.35%
1.17
1.00
0.93
0.87
0.80
0.66
0.59
0.53
0.87
0.77
0.69
0.63
1.28
1.14
1.02
0.96

5 years
0.23%
0.46%
0.79
0.98
0.86
1.24
0.42%
0.93
0.72
0.70
1.16
0.32%
0.75
0.50
0.58
0.92

Source: Bureau of Justice Statistics, Recidivism of State Prisoners Released in 2005 data collection.

Recidivism of Prisoners Released in 30 states in 2005: Patterns from 2005 to 2010 | April 2014

27

Appendix table 13
Standard errors for table 12: Recidivism of prisoners released in 30 states in 2005, by sex of releasee, most serious commitment
offense, and time from release to first arrest
Sex of releasee and most
serious commitment offense
All released prisoners
Male
Violent
Property
Drug
Public order
Female
Violent
Property
Drug
Public order

6 months
0.28%
0.31%
0.59
0.63
0.57
0.80
0.45%
1.13
0.79
0.77
1.20

Cumulative percent of released prisoners arrested within—
1 year
2 years
3 years
4 years
0.29%
0.27%
0.25%
0.24%
0.32%
0.30%
0.28%
0.26%
0.63
0.61
0.58
0.55
0.62
0.55
0.50
0.46
0.59
0.55
0.51
0.48
0.83
0.80
0.75
0.71
0.49%
0.49%
0.48%
0.46%
1.25
1.28
1.24
1.21
0.85
0.84
0.80
0.76
0.83
0.83
0.80
0.78
1.36
1.42
1.39
1.34

5 years
0.23%
0.25%
0.52
0.44
0.45
0.68
0.44%
1.17
0.73
0.75
1.30

Source: Bureau of Justice Statistics, Recidivism of State Prisoners Released in 2005 data collection.

Appendix table 14
Standard errors for table 13: Post-release arrests of prisoners
released in 30 states in 2005, by sex of releasee
Post-release arrests
None
1
2
3
4
5
6 or more
Estimated post-release arrests
Mean number
Median number

Male
0.25%
0.25
0.23
0.21
0.19
0.17
0.26

Female
0.44%
0.38
0.36
0.31
0.28
0.27
0.38

8,193.63
0.02
0.02

1,491.77
0.03
0.03

Source: Bureau of Justice Statistics, Recidivism of State Prisoners Released in 2005
data collection.

Recidivism of Prisoners Released in 30 states in 2005: Patterns from 2005 to 2010 | April 2014

28

Appendix table 15
Standard errors for table 14: Recidivism of prisoners released in 30 states in 2005, by age at release, most serious commitment
offense, and time from release to first arrest
Age at release and most
serious commitment offense
All released prisoners
24 or younger
Violent
Property
Drug
Public order
25–29
Violent
Property
Drug
Public order
30–34
Violent
Property
Drug
Public order
35–39
Violent
Property
Drug
Public order
40 or older
Violent
Property
Drug
Public order

6 months
0.28%
0.69%
1.34
1.23
1.21
2.15
0.67%
1.31
1.33
1.11
1.88
0.73%
1.45
1.44
1.23
1.95
0.75%
1.53
1.40
1.35
1.73
0.51%
0.95
1.02
0.95
1.09

1 year
0.29%
0.68%
1.38
1.17
1.23
2.04
0.68%
1.37
1.31
1.15
1.89
0.76%
1.53
1.42
1.31
1.97
0.77%
1.61
1.37
1.38
1.84
0.54%
1.05
1.04
1.01
1.18

Cumulative percent of released prisoners arrested within—
2 years
3 years
4 years
0.27%
0.25%
0.24%
0.60%
0.54%
0.49%
1.27
1.17
1.10
1.00
0.89
0.80
1.05
0.93
0.82
1.80
1.65
1.48
0.62%
0.55%
0.51%
1.29
1.16
1.07
1.15
1.02
0.94
1.05
0.94
0.86
1.70
1.55
1.43
0.71%
0.66%
0.63%
1.48
1.41
1.34
1.27
1.15
1.05
1.24
1.17
1.10
1.86
1.74
1.68
0.71%
0.65%
0.61%
1.44
1.35
1.28
1.21
1.05
0.96
1.32
1.22
1.14
1.82
1.75
1.68
0.52%
0.50%
0.48%
1.06
1.05
1.02
0.96
0.90
0.85
0.95
0.89
0.85
1.26
1.22
1.18

5 years
0.23%
0.45%
0.99
0.74
0.77
1.27
0.48%
0.99
0.88
0.82
1.35
0.60%
1.29
1.00
1.05
1.58
0.57%
1.24
0.92
1.06
1.59
0.46%
0.99
0.81
0.81
1.16

Source: Bureau of Justice Statistics, Recidivism of State Prisoners Released in 2005 data collection.

Appendix table 16
Standard errors for table 15: Recidivism of prisoners released in 30 states in 2005, by race or Hispanic origin, most serious
commitment offense, and time from release to first arrest
Race/Hispanic origin and most
serious commitment offense
All released prisoners
White
Violent
Property
Drug
Public order
Black/African American
Violent
Property
Drug
Public order
Hispanic/Latino
Violent
Property
Drug
Public order
Other
Violent
Property
Drug
Public order

6 months
0.28%
0.42%
0.85
0.75
0.88
0.90
0.41%
0.80
0.89
0.67
1.20
0.91%
1.69
1.88
1.50
2.68
1.77%
2.76
3.79
2.98
3.15

1 year
0.29%
0.44%
0.93
0.74
0.93
0.97
0.42%
0.83
0.88
0.69
1.24
0.93%
1.78
1.84
1.57
2.68
1.97%
3.41
3.58
4.57
3.45

Cumulative percent of released prisoners arrested within—
2 years
3 years
4 years
0.27%
0.25%
0.24%
0.42%
0.39%
0.37%
0.92
0.89
0.86
0.67
0.61
0.57
0.87
0.81
0.75
0.98
0.93
0.89
0.39%
0.35%
0.33%
0.77
0.71
0.66
0.78
0.71
0.63
0.63
0.57
0.53
1.16
1.09
1.02
0.87%
0.81%
0.78%
1.73
1.64
1.58
1.60
1.46
1.41
1.50
1.40
1.33
2.53
2.38
2.29
1.85%
1.71%
1.62%
3.50
3.37
3.33
3.17
2.56
2.47
4.47
4.18
3.40
3.43
3.30
3.27

5 years
0.23%
0.35%
0.83
0.54
0.71
0.86
0.30%
0.59
0.60
0.49
0.94
0.75%
1.51
1.32
1.30
2.19
1.57%
3.21
2.43
3.37
3.27

Source: Bureau of Justice Statistics, Recidivism of State Prisoners Released in 2005 data collection.

Recidivism of Prisoners Released in 30 states in 2005: Patterns from 2005 to 2010 | April 2014

29

Appendix table 17
Standard errors for table 16: Recidivism of prisoners released in 29 states in 2005, by most serious commitment offense and
time from release to first arrest that led to recidivating event
Recidivism measurement and most
serious commitment offense
Adjudication
Violent
Property
Drug
Public order
Conviction
Violent
Property
Drug
Public order
Incarceration
Violent
Property
Drug
Public order
Imprisonment
Violent
Property
Drug
Public order
Return to prison
Violent
Property
Drug
Public order

6 months
0.23%
0.40
0.46
0.42
0.58
0.21%
0.37
0.43
0.39
0.55
0.19%
0.35
0.39
0.33
0.49
0.15%
0.27
0.33
0.25
0.38
0.30%
0.62
0.61
0.52
0.80

Cumulative percent of released prisoners who recidivated within—
1 year
2 years
3 years
4 years
0.27%
0.30%
0.31%
0.30%
0.49
0.57
0.59
0.60
0.54
0.57
0.57
0.56
0.50
0.54
0.55
0.54
0.68
0.76
0.78
0.78
0.26%
0.29%
0.30%
0.31%
0.46
0.55
0.58
0.60
0.52
0.56
0.57
0.57
0.47
0.53
0.55
0.55
0.67
0.75
0.78
0.78
0.24%
0.28%
0.29%
0.30%
0.43
0.51
0.55
0.58
0.48
0.54
0.56
0.57
0.42
0.50
0.52
0.54
0.61
0.71
0.76
0.78
0.20%
0.24%
0.26%
0.27%
0.34
0.43
0.47
0.50
0.42
0.48
0.52
0.54
0.33
0.42
0.46
0.48
0.49
0.62
0.68
0.71
0.33%
0.34%
0.33%
0.33%
0.70
0.71
0.71
0.70
0.65
0.64
0.62
0.61
0.60
0.62
0.62
0.61
0.91
0.93
0.91
0.90

5 years
0.30%
0.60
0.55
0.53
0.77
0.30%
0.60
0.56
0.54
0.78
0.30%
0.59
0.57
0.54
0.78
0.28%
0.53
0.55
0.50
0.73
0.33%
0.69
0.60
0.61
0.89

Source: Bureau of Justice Statistics, Recidivism of State Prisoners Released in 2005 data collection.

Recidivism of Prisoners Released in 30 states in 2005: Patterns from 2005 to 2010 | April 2014

30

The Bureau of Justice Statistics, located in the Office of Justice Programs, U.S. Department
of Justice, collects, analyzes, and disseminates statistical information on crime, criminal
offenders, victims of crime, and the operation of justice systems at all levels of government.
William J. Sabol is acting director.
This report was written by Matthew R. Durose, Alexia D. Cooper, Ph.D., and Howard N.
Snyder, Ph.D. Alexia Cooper, Ph.D., and Andrew Tiedt, Ph.D., verified the report.
The International Justice and Public Safety Network (Nlets) collected the criminal history
records for this study on behalf of BJS. Pragmatica, LLC and Information Sharing, LLC
assisted Nlets with the data collection activities. NORC at the University of Chicago assisted
BJS with selecting the sample and processing the criminal history data. The Justice Research
and Statistics Association assisted NORC with compiling documentation from the states
on their criminal history records. Joseph Mulako-Wangota, BJS IT Specialist, assisted with
processing and analyzing the criminal history data. Avinash Bhati, BJS Visiting Fellow,
assisted with processing the NCRP records for the return-to-prison analysis. Marcus
Berzofsky, of RTI, assisted with generating the population-adjusted estimates that were used
to compare the recidivism rates from the 1994 and 2005 studies.
Morgan Young and Jill Thomas edited the report. Barbara Quinn and Tina Dorsey
produced the report.
April 2014, NCJ 244205

Office of Justice Programs
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